Vontier Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Vontier trades at a deep discount to peers at 13.25x P/E and 10.47x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 17.96x and 16.42x, supported by FY2025 FCF of $441M and declining total debt to $2.14B, but Q2 2026 revenue fell 2.2% YoY and GAAP EPS collapsed to $0.20 from $0.66 in Q1 2026, signaling earnings-quality concerns despite a strong adjusted EPS beat of $0.89 versus $0.805 consensus.
The stock sits below both its 50-day MA ($32.49) and 200-day MA ($34.09) as of 8 Oct, while insider board acquisitions at $28.91 in June 2026 and the Tesco forecourt-automation partnership announced September 2026 provide a fundamental floor. Hold until the GAAP-to-adjusted earnings gap narrows and quarterly revenue returns to growth.
What could go wrong
- Earnings quality deterioration. Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.20 versus adjusted EPS of $0.89 implies significant non-cash or one-time charges; persistent gaps would erode credibility.
- Revenue contraction. Q2 2026 revenue declined 2.2% YoY to $757M after Q1 2026 grew only 1.3%, suggesting demand softening in core mobility-technologies segment.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $2.14B against stockholders' equity of $1.24B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility if end-markets weaken further.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $32.20 trades below both MA50 ($32.49) and MA200 ($34.09); a decisive break below the $28-29 June insider-buy zone could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 8 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 6 Aug. Orin's read on VNT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.3% over twelve months, from $43.03 on 27 Oct 2025 to $34.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $43.03 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 19.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.3M, on 7 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VNT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $430.1M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $388.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $266.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $184.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $136.4M | 0.0% |
| Woodline Partners | $118.0M | 0.4% |
| Franklin Resources | $115.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $78.1M | 0.0% |
| Corient Private Wealth | $65.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $64.5M | 0.0% |
67 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 76 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$955K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VNT
Orin answers questions about VNT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.2×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.2×above usual | 13.2× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.77×near usual | 1.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0×above usual | 10.5× | — |
| P/B | 4.5×below usual | 5.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $38.25 (from $35 to $43) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$38.25
$35 – $43 · +10% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNTVontier Corporation | $5B | 16.2× | 12.0× | 46.7% | 11.3% | 28% |
| ARWArrow Electronics, Inc. | $9B | 8.9× | 7.8× | 11.2% | 2.6% | 15% |
| BMIBadger Meter, Inc. | $4B | 34.9× | 21.7× | 41.6% | 14.4% | 18% |
| ESEESCO Technologies Inc. | $6B | 19.6× | 20.4× | 42.0% | 24.4% | 20% |
| INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation | $7B | 15.4× | 7.6× | 6.6% | 0.8% | 10% |
| ITRIItron, Inc. | $4B | 15.1× | 11.9× | 40.7% | 12.1% | 17% |
| LFUSLittelfuse, Inc. | $10B | lost money | 40.2× | 39.3% | −0.3% | 0% |
| NOVTNovanta Inc. | $6B | 93.9× | 33.8× | 42.5% | 6.0% | 5% |
| OSISOSI Systems, Inc. | $3B | 21.7× | 14.7× | 33.2% | 8.7% | 18% |
- LFUS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $57 a share — 64% above the $34.66 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $57 | 64% above $34.66 |
| Levered | $54 | 56% above $34.66 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.