Orin
VNTNYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Vontier Corporation VNT

Market cap $4.4BP/E 12.9× trailingGross margin 46.6%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$31.32
−0.10 (−0.32%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $27.25 – $48.20
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 16 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Vontier trades at 13.5x P/E and 10.8x EV/EBITDA, roughly 35-40% below peer medians of 20.9x and 17.9x, despite improving fundamentals: FY2025 FCF expanded to $441M from $345M, total debt declined to $2.14B from $2.20B, and EPS grew to $2.76 from $2.75. Q2 2026 earnings beat consensus ($0.89 vs $0.82) with management raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance, and the EKOS acquisition deepens the fleet connectivity platform.

The stock has pulled back to $32.84 from prior overbought levels above $35, now sitting below the 200-day MA of $34.99 with a neutral RSI of 54.7, offering a better entry point while insiders remain net buyers (~313k shares over 24 months including cluster director buys at $28.91 in June 2026).

What could go wrong

  • Revenue stagnation. Revenue has been range-bound between $2.98B and $3.18B over five years; FY2025's $3.08B still trails FY2022's $3.18B, raising questions about organic growth trajectory.
  • Leverage. Total debt of $2.14B against stockholders' equity of $1.24B yields a debt-to-equity ratio of ~1.7x, limiting financial flexibility in a downturn.
  • EV transition disruption. Core fuel dispensing and convenience retail infrastructure could face long-term displacement from EV adoption, though EKOS acquisition partially addresses this.
  • Smart money indifference. Smart money score is essentially flat at -0.0045 as of March 2026, with fund count rising but no meaningful net accumulation signal.

What would change my mind

Revenue growth reacceleration. Quarterly organic revenue growth turns positive above 3% year-over-yearbullish
Debt reduction milestone. Total debt falls below $2.0B with sustained FCF above $450M annualizedbullish
Margin compression. Operating margin declines below 18% (FY2025 operating income of $561.6M on $3.08B revenue = 18.3%) for two consecutive quartersbearish
Stock breaks below 50-day MA. Price closes below $30.56 (MA50) on elevated volume, signaling loss of near-term momentumbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · FMP fundamentals · Zacks news article 2026-08-06 · insider transactions. Orin's read on VNT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$430.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$266.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$184.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$136.4M0.0% of fund
Woodline Partners$118.0M0.4% of fund
Franklin Resources$115.4M0.0% of fund

65 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 76 Form 4 filings, net $1.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.9×44.5×
EV/EBITDA10.4×
P/S1.44×
P/B3.7×
What the price assumes

-1.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

13 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$38

$35$43 · +22% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 4 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 21.9× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
VNTVontier Corporation$4B12.9×10.4×46.6%11.3%28%
ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.$12B14.4×10.6×11.2%2.3%12%
BMIBadger Meter, Inc.$4B31.0×19.0×41.3%14.3%18%
ESEESCO Technologies Inc.$7B21.9×24.9×42.0%24.4%20%
INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation$6B14.8×7.5×6.6%0.8%10%
ITRIItron, Inc.$4B15.0×8.5×39.9%11.9%17%
LFUSLittelfuse, Inc.$11B38.5×39.3%-0.3%-0%
NOVTNovanta Inc.$5B90.8×33.7×42.5%6.0%5%
OSISOSI Systems, Inc.$3B22.0×18.2×33.2%8.7%18%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 41.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY16 18.7×FY25 13.4×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $31.32
52-week range$27 – $48
Analyst targets$35 – $43
At sector P/E (45×)$108

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.