VeriSign, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
VeriSign remains an exceptional internet-infrastructure monopoly — FY2025 revenue of $1.657B grew 6.4% YoY with 88.2% gross margins, 67.7% operating margins, and $1.068B free cash flow on just $22.8M capex — but at 33.2x trailing earnings versus a 23.2x peer median (a 43% premium), the stock already prices in near-flawless execution.
Recent quarterly trends are healthy (Q2 2026 revenue of $434.6M up 6.0% YoY, Q1 2026 up 6.6%), and technicals are constructive with the stock at $306.48 above both the 50-day ($291.64) and 200-day ($268.93) moving averages, but persistent insider selling — $1.28B in net dispositions over 24 months including CEO Bidzos selling through mid-October 2026 — tempers enthusiasm. With Q3 2026 earnings due October 22 and analysts expecting $2.46 EPS and $440.59M revenue, the risk/reward is balanced enough to wait for confirmation rather than chase.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 33.2x PE versus a 23.2x peer median (43% premium) and 16.2x PS versus 2.8x (485% premium), any execution misstep could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 4.54M shares worth $1.28B over 24 months, with CEO Bidzos continuing to sell through October 13, 2026, signal no urgency to accumulate at current levels.
- Regulatory and contract risk. The .com registry agreement and pricing terms are subject to ICANN and government oversight; adverse regulatory action could constrain the pricing engine that drives growth.
- Negative book equity. Total stockholders' equity of -$2.154B as of FY2025 reflects aggressive buybacks and $1.798B in debt, limiting balance-sheet flexibility if conditions deteriorate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on VRSN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 23.0% over twelve months, from $247.22 on 27 Oct 2025 to $304.04 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $310.00 on 22 May 2026; the last close is 1.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.6M, on 6 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VRSN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $2.3B | 0.8% |
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $622.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $571.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $361.5M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $282.8M | 0.0% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 457 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3B. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 46 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VRSN
Orin answers questions about VRSN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.5×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.7×above usual | 27.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 15.7×above usual | 14.3× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.8×above usual | 20.9× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $374 (from $367 to $380) — 23% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$374
$367 – $380 · +23% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (AKAM 29.0×, GDDY 15.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSNVeriSign, Inc. | $27B | 32.7× | 23.8× | 88.6% | 49.1% | n/m |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc. | $11B | 29.0× | 19.3× | 55.4% | 8.8% | 8% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | $13B | 15.6× | 11.5× | 63.8% | 17.8% | 661% |
- VRSN: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now32.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $242 a share — 20% below the $301.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $242 | 20% below $301.95 |
| Levered | $269 | 11% below $301.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.