Orin
VRSNNasdaq·Software - Infrastructure

VeriSign, Inc. VRSN

Market cap $26.6BP/E 31.8× trailingGross margin 88.5%Reports Thu 22 Oct, after the close
$294.73
+1.45 (+0.50%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $208.86 – $312.48
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

VeriSign remains an exceptional internet infrastructure monopoly—FY2025 revenue of $1.657B grew 6.4% YoY with 88.2% gross margins, 67.7% operating margins, and $1.068B in free cash flow on just $22.8M of capex—but at 31.6x trailing earnings, a 77.4% premium to the 17.8x peer median, the stock prices in franchise quality with little margin of safety. Institutional accumulation is a positive signal: BlackRock recently disclosed a $2.12B position (9.32% ownership), the smart money score improved to +0.032 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 from -0.039 a quarter earlier, and Zacks upgraded the stock to a Strong Buy.

However, CEO Bidzos continues systematic selling across August 2026 at ~$289–$294, and insider dispositions have totaled $1.28B net over 24 months across 379 transactions, tempering enthusiasm at these levels.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 31.6x P/E and 15.5x P/S—323% above the peer median P/S of 3.66x—any growth disappointment risks multiple contraction with limited downside protection.
  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $1.28B over 24 months across 379 sales, including regular CEO selling in August 2026, signal sustained distribution despite the stock's strength.
  • Registry contract risk. Revenue depends materially on the .com and .net registry agreements; any adverse renegotiation or regulatory action on pricing terms would impair the cash-flow thesis.
  • Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $1.798B paired with negative stockholders' equity of -$2.154B reflects aggressive buybacks that constrain balance-sheet flexibility.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings acceleration. Revenue growth exceeds 7% YoY or management raises FY2026 guidance above current trajectorybullish
Insider net buying reversal. CEO or officers execute net open-market purchases over a 60-day window, reversing the 24-month selling patternbullish
Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% YoY, indicating the .com/.net renewal engine is slowingbearish
Multiple expansion without fundamental support. P/E exceeds 36x without corresponding EPS or revenue growth acceleration, stretching the valuation furtherbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · peer_relative snapshot as of 2026-08-28 · Defense World news article, published 2026-08-20 · smart_money 13F composite, as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on VRSN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Berkshire Hathaway$2.3B0.8% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.3B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.3B0.1% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$1.2B0.4% of fund
State Street$1.0B0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$622.3M0.0% of fund

97 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 438 Form 4 filings, net −$1.3B. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 34 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about VRSN

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E31.8×27.2×53.3×
EV/EBITDA23.3×20.9×
P/S15.52×14.26×

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.51σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

15 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$348

$341$355 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 9 buy or overweight
  • 5 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 15.1× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
VRSNVeriSign, Inc.$27B31.8×23.3×88.5%49.8%-39%
CPAYCorpay, Inc.$26B23.7×13.7×73.3%22.7%30%
FLEXFlex Ltd.$41B43.4×23.4×9.5%3.3%19%
GDDYGoDaddy Inc.$13B14.2×11.0×63.8%17.8%661%
GENGen Digital Inc.$16B15.1×10.1×78.0%20.7%42%
PTCPTC Inc.$16B13.5×10.4×84.1%41.4%33%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 110.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 20.4×FY25 27.5×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$280$283.26 · −1%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$310$283.26 · +9%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $294.73
52-week range$209 – $312
Analyst targets$341 – $355
Standard DCF$280 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $283.26
Levered DCF$310 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $283.26
At own 5y-median P/E (27×)$251
At 5y P/E range (26–36×)$239 – $334
At sector P/E (53×)$492

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.