Orin
VRTNYSE·Electrical Equipment & Parts

Vertiv Holdings Co VRT

Market cap $96.5BP/E 54.3× trailingGross margin 37.5%Reports Wed 28 Oct, before the open
$250.71
+5.41 (+2.21%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $137.08 – $379.94
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 3 Sep · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Vertiv's fundamentals remain best-in-class — FY2025 revenue grew 27.7% to $10.2B with operating margin expanding to 18.5% and FCF of $1.89B — but the stock at $255.97 still trades at 56.6x P/E, an 82.7% premium to the peer median of 31.0x, and 8.58x P/S (151% above peers), leaving little room for error. The September 2026 announcement of the UtilityInnovation Group acquisition for up to $2.6B strategically extends Vertiv's power chain from grid to chip, but adds execution risk on top of $3.4B in existing debt.

With the stock down roughly 20% in three months and sitting at its 200-day MA ($255.88) with RSI at 41.9, the correction has improved the setup but the valuation premium and net insider selling of 354K shares over 24 months temper conviction. The AI infrastructure growth story is intact; the price is not yet compelling enough to add.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 56.6x P/E and 39.2x EV/EBITDA — 82.7% and 110.4% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in growth or margin could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Acquisition integration and leverage. The UtilityInnovation Group deal for up to $2.6B adds to existing total debt of $3.4B as of FY2025, increasing balance sheet risk if synergies are delayed.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 354,475 shares for $77.6M, with no cluster buying to offset the disposition trend.
  • AI data-center demand slowdown. Revenue growth has decelerated from 35.1% YoY in Q2 2025 to 24.1% YoY in Q2 2026; a further slowdown could challenge the premium multiple.

What would change my mind

Valuation reset to compelling levels. P/E compresses toward 40x or below (roughly $136 at current EPS), bringing the premium to peers under 30%bullish
Revenue growth re-accelerates above 30%. Quarterly revenue YoY growth returns above 30% with operating margin holding above 18%bullish
Acquisition dilution or leverage spike. UtilityInnovation Group closing drives net debt/EBITDA above 3.0x or guidance is cut on integration costsbearish
200-day MA breakdown. Price closes decisively below the 200-day MA of $255.88 on heavy volume, confirming a trend changebearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative as of latest data · PRNewsWire 2026-09-02 · quarterly_results Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025. Orin's read on VRT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$8.4B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$6.0B0.3% of fund
State Street$5.5B0.2% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$3.1B0.2% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$3.1B0.3% of fund
Geode Capital Management$3.0B0.2% of fund

139 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 235 Form 4 filings, net −$82.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E54.3×67.2×44.5×
EV/EBITDA37.6×23.9×—
P/S8.23×2.66×—
P/B19.8×9.1×—

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.49σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

20.2%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

21 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$369

$320 – $500 · +47% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 20 buy or overweight
  • 1 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 29.3× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
VRTVertiv Holdings Co$94B54.3×37.6×37.5%15.1%42%
CTASCintas Corporation$79B38.5×27.6×51.0%17.8%42%
EMREmerson Electric Co.$87B34.0×19.3×53.2%13.8%13%
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.$78B24.6×18.8×44.2%19.4%102%
JCIJohnson Controls International plc$88B25.2×26.9×36.7%14.3%27%
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation$72B16.1×11.6×20.1%10.5%27%
PWRQuanta Services, Inc.$97B72.8×33.9×14.4%4.1%15%
TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated$62B33.5×18.6×59.6%21.3%-21%
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.$78B17.1×9.6×16.6%5.1%29%
WMWaste Management, Inc.$83B29.3×14.1×35.0%11.1%29%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 85.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY18 168.1×FY25 46.4×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$19$277.39 · −93%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$40$277.39 · −86%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $250.71
52-week range$134 – $380
Analyst targets$320 – $500
Standard DCF$19 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $277.39
Levered DCF$40 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $277.39
At own 5y-median P/E (67×)$304
At 5y P/E range (40–86×)$179 – $390
At sector P/E (45×)$201

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.