Viasat, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Viasat's FY2025 turnaround is genuine — operating income swung to positive $108M from negative $97M, free cash flow turned positive at $597M versus negative $122M, and total debt declined from $7.52B to $6.94B — but Q1 FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) revenue contracted 1.2% YoY and EPS of negative $0.38 missed estimates by roughly 20%, signaling the recovery remains fragile.
The stock has pulled back sharply to $58.83, below both its 50-day MA of $73.00 and 200-day MA of $62.48 with an RSI of 32.85, yet the ViaSat-3 F2 entering service in September 2026 and the $307M USMC contract ceiling are credible catalysts not yet reflected in accelerating revenue. With a still-negative GAAP P/E of negative 226x and 24-month net insider selling of $176M across 455 transactions, the risk/reward is balanced but unproven; the next quarter needs to show revenue re-acceleration to justify accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q1 FY2026 revenue fell 1.2% YoY to $1.157B; if the ViaSat-3 F2 service launch does not translate into top-line growth, the turnaround narrative breaks.
- Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 27.4% from 33.0% in FY2024, pressuring profitability despite the operating-income improvement.
- Heavy debt load. Total debt stands at $6.94B against stockholders' equity of $4.66B, limiting financial flexibility and raising sensitivity to interest rates.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 12.6M shares worth $176M with zero open-market acquisitions; Director Baldridge sold 223,542 shares per recent news.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 31 Mar · results and earnings vs estimates, quarter to 30 Jun · technicals, 16 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on VSAT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 79.7% over twelve months, from $39.13 on 27 Oct 2025 to $70.30 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $89.81 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 21.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.1M, on 1 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VSAT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $828.5M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $547.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $529.4M | 0.0% |
| Carronade Capital Management | $485.0M | 8.4% |
| Disciplined Growth Investors | $425.9M | 7.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $363.4M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $324.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $290.3M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $188.7M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 457 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$176.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VSAT
Orin answers questions about VSAT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 283× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 283× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 1.75×above usual | 1.01× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2×below usual | 9.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×above usual | 0.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $97.67 (from $49 to $140) — 39% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$97.67
$49 – $140 · +39% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 283× its last 12 months of profit. None of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSATViasat, Inc. | $8B | 283× | 8.2× | 35.9% | −2.1% | −2% |
| ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $17B | lost money | n/m | −14.0% | −536.7% | −35% |
- ASTS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- ASTS: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 283× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now283×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.