Viasat, Inc. VSAT
Viasat's operational turnaround is genuine — FY2025 (ended 2026-03-31) produced positive operating income of $108M and $597M FCF versus -$97M operating income and -$122M FCF in FY2024, with total debt declining from $7.52B to $6.94B — but the stock at $72.28 still trades ~30% above its 200-day MA ($55.66) with negative EPS of -$0.25 and a GAAP P/E of -278x. The Rocket Lab partnership for the U.S.
Space Force's PTS-G program is a credible defense catalyst, yet the post-earnings revenue miss (reported Aug 4), relentless insider selling ($463M net dispositions over 24 months across 430 transactions), and the looming Starlink competitive threat with 11,000 satellites in orbit cap near-term upside. The pullback from ~$83 to $72 has cooled some excess, but the turnaround remains insufficiently priced for risk-adjusted entry.
What could go wrong
- Competitive pressure from Starlink. SpaceX's Starlink constellation has surpassed 11,000 satellites in LEO, threatening Viasat's fixed broadband and maritime segments which are already under pressure per the Q1 FY2027 revenue miss.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 25.5M shares worth $463M across 430 transactions; recent August 2026 filings show continued dispositions by the CFO, Chief Accounting Officer, and SVPs.
- Leverage and profitability gap. Total debt stands at $6.94B against stockholders' equity of $4.66B, and FY2025 net income remains negative at -$34M with a net margin of -0.73%.
- Technical breakdown risk. MACD histogram is -1.43 with the signal line above the MACD line, RSI at 42.4, and price below the 50-day MA of $74.52 — momentum is deteriorating and a break below the 200-day MA could accelerate selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2024 vs FY2025 · Technical data as of 2026-08-24 · Insider transaction summary, 24-month window. Orin's read on VSAT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VSAT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $828.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $547.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $529.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Carronade Capital Management | $485.0M | 8.4% of fund |
| Disciplined Growth Investors /Mn | $425.9M | 7.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $363.4M | 0.0% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 447 Form 4 filings, net −$190.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VSAT
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.20× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | — | — |
5.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$94
$49 – $140 · +29% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSATViasat, Inc. | $10B | — | 8.6× | 30.4% | -0.6% | -1% |
| BDCBelden Inc. | $4B | 17.8× | 11.7× | 36.5% | 8.5% | 19% |
| BMIBadger Meter, Inc. | $4B | 30.4× | 18.6× | 41.3% | 14.3% | 18% |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group | $3B | — | — | 0.5% | -55.1% | -55% |
| CLSKCleanSpark, Inc. | $4B | — | — | -5.3% | -146.9% | -75% |
| PIImpinj, Inc. | $5B | — | — | 52.7% | -7.3% | -13% |
| VNTVontier Corporation | $4B | 12.7× | 10.3× | 46.6% | 11.3% | 28% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.