VSE Corporation VSEC
VSE Corporation's aviation aftermarket transformation is genuinely accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue surged 65% YoY to $449.1M with GAAP EPS of $0.91 and net income up 109%, management raised full-year guidance, and FY2025 total debt was cut from $485M to $343M while operating margin expanded to 11.24%. However, at $230.42 the stock trades at 83.8x trailing earnings and 41.9x EV/EBITDA — roughly 14x and 3x peer medians respectively — leaving no margin for error, and CEO John Cuomo sold shares across multiple transactions on August 17, 2026 at prices between $238 and $245 just before the stock dropped 6.9% to $214.51 on August 20.
The momentum is real and smart money fund count is rising (48 funds as of Q2 2026 vs. 44 prior quarter), but the valuation premium and insider selling at these levels argue against adding here.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation. At 83.8x PE and 41.9x EV/EBITDA, VSEC trades at roughly 14x and 3x peer medians respectively; any deceleration in growth or margin miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- CEO insider selling. CEO John Cuomo executed multiple open-market sales on 2026-08-17 at $238–$245 per share, just days before the stock fell 6.9% to $214.51 on 2026-08-20; 24-month insider net value is -$20.6M.
- Thin free cash flow. FY2025 FCF was only $5.7M (0.51% margin) despite $125M operating income, and FCF was negative in FY2021–FY2024, raising questions about cash conversion sustainability.
- Acquisition-driven growth sustainability. Q2 2026's 65% revenue growth reflects recent acquisitions alongside organic growth; integration risk and leverage remain if deal flow slows or synergies disappoint.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Business Wire Q2 2026 results announcement, 2026-08-05 · FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative composite · insider transactions, 2026-08-17. Orin's read on VSEC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VSEC filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 6 Aug | VSE Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on October 29, 2026, to stockholders of record on October 15, 2026. | read |
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | VSE Corporation reported total revenues of $449.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 65% increase year-over-year, and $773.7 million for the six months ended June… | read |
| 8-K | 5 Aug | VSE Corporation reported record second quarter 2026 revenue of $449.1 million, a 65.0% increase year-over-year, and GAAP Net Income of $28.5 million, up 109.1%. | read |
| 13G | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $471.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $283.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $235.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Durable Capital Partners | $224.0M | 2.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $189.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $184.6M | 0.0% of fund |
66 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 173 Form 4 filings, net −$17.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VSEC
Orin answers questions about VSEC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 65.6× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.73× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | — | — |
63.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$265
$230 – $290 · +46% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSECVSE Corporation | $5B | 65.6× | 33.9× | 14.0% | 5.5% | 4% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $5B | 27.8× | 15.3× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| PLPlanet Labs PBC | $6B | — | — | 55.4% | -95.1% | -93% |
| SNDRSchneider National, Inc. | $6B | 49.4× | 9.1× | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4% |
| WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation | $3B | — | 19.6× | 48.4% | -3.0% | -7% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 70.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.