Vistra Corp.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Vistra's $4.2 billion DOE conditional loan to add 433 MW of nuclear capacity and extend three plants by 20 years is a genuine long-term catalyst, and the stock's 11% one-day rally on the news reflects real AI-power-demand optionality.
However, FY2025 earnings collapsed to EPS of $2.18 from $7.00 in FY2024, free cash flow fell to $129 million as capex surged to $3.94 billion, and Q2 2026's EPS of $0.76 missed estimates by roughly 53% — making the near-term fundamental picture too erratic to justify a buy at $152.02. The 25% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median (10.73x vs 14.30x) is attractive, but net insider selling of $271.7 million over 24 months and a smart money score that declined from 0.13 to 0.033 quarter-over-quarter as of Q2 2026 cap conviction until earnings stabilize.
What could go wrong
- Earnings volatility. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.76 missed the $1.61 estimate by 52.8%, and FY2025 EPS fell 68.9% from $7.00 to $2.18, showing highly unpredictable profitability.
- Leverage and FCF pressure. Total debt of $20.4 billion against equity of $5.1 billion, with FY2025 free cash flow of only $129 million after $3.94 billion in capex, limits financial flexibility.
- Insider selling acceleration. Net insider dispositions of $271.7 million over 24 months, with the CFO and EVP selling at $160–$165 in October 2026, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- DOE loan conditionality. The $4.2 billion DOE loan is conditional; failure to meet federal requirements could derail the nuclear expansion thesis that drove the recent rally.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on VST; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 26.4% over twelve months, from $199.30 on 27 Oct 2025 to $146.66 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $199.37 on 29 Oct 2025; the last close is 26.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.1M, on 6 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $921.8M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $752.3M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $589.1M | 0.0% |
131 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 258 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$271.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VST
Orin answers questions about VST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 24.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.4× | — | 18.5× |
| P/S | 2.56×above usual | 0.96× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5×below usual | 14.1× | — |
| P/B | 9.0× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 10.6× to 72.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.3× to 10.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $206 (from $169 to $298) — 40% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$206
$169 – $298 · +40% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 24.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTVistra Corp. | $49B | 24.4× | 10.5× | 38.0% | 11.6% | 41% |
| AESThe AES Corporation | $11B | 6.0× | 11.2× | 21.3% | 13.5% | 33% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $92B | 25.1× | 14.5× | 22.2% | 11.1% | 15% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | $7B | 43.1× | 14.0× | 53.0% | 5.8% | 2% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $20B | 25.1× | 13.7× | 19.4% | 2.6% | 25% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | $16B | lost money | 35.6× | 44.6% | −5.2% | −14% |
- TLN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 24.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now24.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $168 a share — 15% above the $145.27 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $168 | 15% above $145.27 |
| Levered | $170 | 17% above $145.27 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.