Vistra Corp. VST
Vistra remains a hold as the stock trades at $139.03, below both its 50-day MA of $152.955 and 200-day MA of $159.33 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.49, reflecting continued technical weakness despite a compelling AI-power-demand narrative. The FY2025 trough—EPS collapsed to $2.21 from $7.00 and FCF fell to $129M as CapEx surged to $3.94B—appears priced in given the 26.7% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median (10.22x vs 13.95x) and BlackRock's new $4.61B position, but persistent net insider selling of approximately $184M over 24 months and $20.4B total debt against $5.1B equity cap conviction.
CEO Burke's August 24 purchase of 2,000 shares at $135 is a modest positive signal near current levels, but is too small to offset the broader disposition pattern. A technical reclaim of the 50-day MA alongside evidence that FY2026 EBITDA execution is translating into FCF recovery would shift the call toward buy.
What could go wrong
- CapEx escalation persists. FY2025 CapEx of $3.94B nearly doubled from $2.078B in FY2024, crushing FCF to $129M; if elevated spending continues without contracted revenue materializing, deleveraging stalls.
- Leverage and balance sheet. Total debt of $20.4B against stockholders' equity of $5.1B as of FY2025 creates a highly leveraged capital structure vulnerable to interest-rate or commodity-price shocks.
- Insider selling continues. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 1,015,131 shares for $183.9M across 165 dispositions versus 85 acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at recent prices.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock at $139.03 is below both the 50-day ($152.955) and 200-day ($159.33) moving averages with RSI at 41.56; a further slide could trigger institutional de-risking.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals as of 2026-08-25 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · peer_relative · news article 2026-08-19. Orin's read on VST; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
128 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 256 Form 4 filings, net −$192.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VST
Orin answers questions about VST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.0× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2× | 14.2× | — |
| P/S | 2.91× | 0.92× | — |
| P/B | 8.6× | 2.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.38σ from its own mean).
49.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$217
$169 – $298 · +59% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTVistra Corp. | $47B | 23.0× | 10.2× | 13.0% | 13.9% | 41% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.3× | 13.7× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $54B | 21.2× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $42B | 14.9× | 10.3× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $21B | 26.4× | 10.5× | 16.4% | 2.3% | 25% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $34B | 16.7× | 13.3× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SRESempra | $52B | 22.8× | 13.5× | 41.7% | 16.8% | 7% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $44B | 19.3× | 12.6× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 13.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $18 | $138.83 · −87% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-12 | $138.83 · −108% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.