Ventas, Inc. VTR
Ventas continues to execute on its senior housing recovery thesis, with FY2025 revenue growing 18.5% to $5.83B, operating income up 21.4% to $827M, and Q2 2026 FFO beating consensus at $0.97 vs. $0.96 alongside raised full-year guidance. However, the stock trades at 19.6x EV/EBITDA — a 33% premium to the peer median of 14.7x — and while the pullback from ~$98 to $93.51 has cooled the technical picture (RSI at 50.1, MACD histogram negative), insiders remain net sellers at $77.8M over 24 months and the smart money score is low at 0.030.
The improving fundamentals are genuine but the valuation premium and persistent insider selling keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium unwinds. At 19.6x EV/EBITDA vs. peer median 14.7x, any disappointment in SHOP growth or guidance could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with the stock still above its 50-day ($89.02) and 200-day ($82.84) MAs.
- Insider selling persists. Net insider dispositions of $77.8M over 24 months with 110 sell transactions vs. 158 acquisitions suggest limited insider conviction despite the operational turnaround.
- Interest rate sensitivity. With $13.2B in total debt, rising rates or widening credit spreads could pressure FFO and increase refinancing costs, offsetting SHOP-driven NOI gains.
- SHOP occupancy reversal. The thesis hinges on continued occupancy gains and rent growth in the senior housing operating portfolio; any slowdown in demographic-driven demand or new supply pressure could stall the recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · Zacks news article, 2026-07-29 · MarketBeat news article, 2026-08-01. Orin's read on VTR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.3% of fund |
89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 270 Form 4 filings, net −$76.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VTR
Orin answers questions about VTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 157.5× | — | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3× | 18.4× | — |
| P/S | 6.54× | 4.92× | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.45σ from its own mean).
14.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$100
$88 – $110 · +15% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $42B | 157.5× | 22.3× | -2.6% | 4.1% | 2% |
| AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $26B | 25.2× | 18.8× | 52.7% | 33.4% | 9% |
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $31B | 28.4× | 19.5× | 63.2% | 25.8% | -52% |
| CSGPCoStar Group, Inc. | $11B | 153.8× | 27.1× | 76.5% | 2.1% | 1% |
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | $14B | 58.5× | 12.8× | 2.5% | 8.6% | 3% |
| EQREquity Residential | $24B | 27.6× | 14.3× | 46.0% | 27.9% | 8% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $28B | 29.5× | 13.3× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $34B | 82.2× | 21.4× | 54.2% | 5.5% | -38% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $18B | 18.3× | 15.7× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | $26B | 9.2× | 11.9× | 99.3% | 67.5% | 10% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 454.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $199 | $84.31 · +136% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $112 | $84.31 · +32% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.