Ventas, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ventas is a tactical buy into an oversold tape, with the stock at $80.04 — roughly 11% below its 50-day MA of $89.59 and carrying an RSI of 20.85 as of 7 Oct.
Fundamentals support the contrarian entry: FY2025 revenue grew 18.5% YoY to $5.83B with operating margin expanding from 13.8% to 14.2%, and Q2 2026 revenue of $1.73B marked the third consecutive quarter of 20%+ YoY top-line growth. The upcoming Q3 2026 earnings release on October 27 is a near-term catalyst against a backdrop of favorable senior-housing demographic tailwinds and management's raised 2026 FFO guidance. The stretched P/E of 145.5x — 420% above the peer median of 27.9x — reflects depressed accounting earnings rather than operating weakness, while the FCF margin of 22.6% and EV/EBITDA of 21.1x remain the more relevant valuation lenses for a REIT.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. EV/EBITDA of 21.1x sits 34% above the peer median of 15.7x, limiting multiple expansion room if growth decelerates.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 1.05M shares worth $75.4M, with 49 dispositions versus 1 acquisition; recent October 2026 transactions are modest grants rather than open-market buys.
- Weak institutional positioning. Smart money score of 0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun is near the bottom of its trailing range, though fund count rose to 63 from 57 a year earlier.
- Negative gross profit anomaly. FY2025 reported gross profit was -$344.2M, likely reflecting a large one-time charge, which complicates headline earnings quality despite positive operating income of $826.8M.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 7 Oct · technicals · fundamentals · quarterly results. Orin's read on VTR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 16.5% over twelve months, from $71.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $83.34 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $100.53 on 24 Jul 2026; the last close is 17.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.6M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VTR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $797.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $700.3M | 0.0% |
92 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 290 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$75.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VTR
Orin answers questions about VTR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 203× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of the 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 294×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 203×below usual | 294× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 6.30×above usual | 4.92× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.7×above usual | 20.4× | — |
| P/B | 2.9×above usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $98.57 (from $88 to $110) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$98.57
$88 – $110 · +18% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 203× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DOC 54.3×, WELL 110×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $43B | 203× | 23.7× | n/a | 3.0% | 2% |
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | $13B | 54.3× | 12.5× | n/a | 8.6% | 3% |
| WELLWelltower Inc. | $163B | 110× | 49.0× | n/a | 10.7% | 3% |
- VTR, DOC, WELL: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 203× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now203×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $146 a share — 75% above the $83.80 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $146 | 75% above $83.80 |
| Levered | $91 | 8% above $83.80 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.