Viatris Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Viatris remains a hold as the operational turnaround is gaining credibility but the just-announced $1.65B Pacira acquisition adds execution and balance-sheet risk on top of still-negative GAAP profitability.
Quarterly revenue turned positive in 2026 with Q1 up 8.1% YoY and Q2 up 4.9% YoY to $3.76B, and adjusted EPS has beaten consensus for four consecutive quarters including a 14.8% surprise in Q2 2026, yet full-year 2025 GAAP results remain deeply negative with a $2.66B operating loss, EPS of -$3.00, and gross margin compressing to 35.1% from 41.7% in 2023. The stock has cooled from overbought levels (prior RSI of 73.3) to a neutral RSI of 55.1 at $17.54, still above both the 50-day MA of $16.93 and 200-day MA of $15.49, while persistent free cash flow of $1.94B and debt reduction from $23.4B in 2021 to $14.7B in 2025 support the re-rating case. With negligible smart money interest (score of 0.00 across 60 funds as of Q2 2026) and barely positive quarterly operating income of $6.3M in Q2 2026, conviction is tempered by the added acquisition complexity.
What could go wrong
- Acquisition execution risk. The $1.65B Pacira deal announced October 2026 adds cash outlay on top of $14.7B existing total debt; integration of two marketed pain therapies and a clinical-stage gene therapy candidate into Viatris' four-segment structure introduces execution uncertainty.
- Margin compression. Gross margin has declined from 41.7% in 2023 to 35.1% in 2025, and FY2025 operating margin is -18.6%, indicating core profitability erosion even as revenue trends improve quarterly.
- GAAP losses persist. FY2025 net loss of $3.51B and EPS of -$3.00 follow a $634M net loss in 2024; the company has not produced positive GAAP net income since 2023's $55M.
- Low institutional conviction. Smart money score of 0.00 across 60 funds as of Q2 2026 suggests minimal sophisticated investor interest despite the improving quarterly revenue trend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · FY21 and FY25 fundamentals · news, 8 Oct. Orin's read on VTRS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 79.7% over twelve months, from $10.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $18.72 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 34.8M, on 7 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VTRS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $862.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $842.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $520.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $329.8M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $298.8M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $240.2M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 197 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$404K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VTRS
Orin answers questions about VTRS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.48× its yearly sales — above its usual level (0.91×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 20.8× |
| P/S | 1.48×above usual | 0.91× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8×above usual | 8.7× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×above usual | 0.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 6.5× to 238× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $21 (from $14 to $26) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$21
$14 – $26 · +12% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. None of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTRSViatris Inc. | $22B | lost money | 11.8× | 35.2% | −4.1% | −4% |
| BAXBaxter International Inc. | $13B | lost money | 27.2× | 30.1% | −9.3% | −17% |
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | $83B | lost money | n/m | −12.6% | −141.4% | −39% |
- BAX, MRNA: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- MRNA: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $19 a share — 4% above the $18.70 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $19 | 4% above $18.70 |
| Levered | $14 | 24% below $18.70 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.