Verizon Communications Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Verizon is a hold after the SpaceX spectrum acquisition introduced a genuine new competitive threat that abruptly ended the stock's technical support, sending shares from $46.35 on 8 Oct to $41.65 on 9 Oct and pushing RSI to an extremely oversold 21.75.
Fundamentals were already mixed: FY2025 revenue grew 2.5% to $138.2B and free cash flow improved to $20.1B, but diluted EPS declined to $4.06, operating margin compressed to 21.2%, and total debt surged to $200.6B — while Q2 2026 revenue fell 0.73% YoY with GAAP EPS dropping to $0.92 from $1.18 a year earlier. The panic selloff likely overdiscounts the near-term SpaceX risk given Verizon's consistent non-GAAP earnings beats and strong FCF, but the deteriorating margin trend, massive debt load, and unquantified new entrant risk cap conviction on either side.
What could go wrong
- SpaceX competitive disruption. SpaceX's $8B acquisition of Grain Management's 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, announced 8 Oct, positions it to enter mobile telecom directly — a structural threat whose impact on Verizon's market share and pricing power is not yet quantifiable.
- Debt burden. Total debt rose to $200.6B as of FY2025 from $168.4B in FY2024, likely tied to the Frontier acquisition, limiting financial flexibility and pressuring interest costs amid elevated rates.
- Margin and EPS compression. Operating margin contracted to 21.2% in FY2025 from 22.7% in FY2024, and diluted EPS fell 2.2% YoY; Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.92 was well below $1.18 in the prior-year quarter.
- Valuation premium to peers. VZ trades at a P/E of 10.85, roughly 48% above the peer median of 7.32, and an EV/EBITDA of 7.52 versus a peer median of 5.53, limiting re-rating upside if growth stalls.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news and technicals, 9 Oct · technicals, 9 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on VZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 12.0% over twelve months, from $39.23 on 27 Oct 2025 to $43.93 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $51.45 on 15 Sep 2026; the last close is 14.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 123.6M, on 30 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $16.9B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.0B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $8.9B | 0.3% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $5.4B | 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.0B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $2.6B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $2.3B | 0.2% |
| Northern Trust | $1.9B | 0.2% |
151 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 466 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$17.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VZ
Orin answers questions about VZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 9.8×); the typical Communication Services company on the NYSE is at 16.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.2×above usual | 9.8× | 16.9× |
| P/S | 1.31×above usual | 1.25× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5×near usual | 7.4× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×near usual | 1.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $47.86 (from $44 to $52) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$47.86
$44 – $52 · +9% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 11.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $183B | 11.2× | 7.5× | 59.1% | 11.8% | 16% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $77B | 6.9× | 4.7× | 69.8% | 9.2% | 12% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $141B | 11.3× | 6.7× | 59.7% | 10.1% | 12% |
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $158B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 16.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now16.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $98 a share — 125% above the $43.76 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $98 | 125% above $43.76 |
| Levered | $63 | 43% above $43.76 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.