Orin
VZNYSE·Telecommunications Services

Verizon Communications Inc. VZ

Market cap $197.5BP/E 12.1× trailingGross margin 59.1%Reports Tue 20 Oct, before the open
$47.30
+0.78 (+1.68%)live 09:35 ET
52-wk $38.39 – $51.68
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Verizon's stock has continued its rally to $48.06 (as of 2026-08-17), supported by bullish technicals — price above both the 50-day ($45.40) and 200-day ($45.04) moving averages with MACD histogram positive — but the fundamental picture remains mixed: FY2025 revenue grew 2.52% yet diluted EPS declined to $4.06 from $4.15 and operating margin compressed to 21.17% from 22.71%, while total debt surged to $200.6B from $168.4B. VZ trades at a 50.8% P/E premium and 38.0% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median, and smart money positioning is slightly negative (score -0.0912 as of Q2 2026), limiting re-rating upside until leverage is addressed and earnings stabilize.

What could go wrong

  • Leverage escalation. Total debt jumped to $200.6B in FY2025 from $168.4B in FY2024, a $32.2B increase that raises interest burden and balance-sheet risk if rates remain elevated.
  • Margin compression. Operating margin fell to 21.17% in FY2025 from 22.71% in FY2024 and net margin declined to 12.43% from 12.99%, indicating cost pressures outpacing revenue growth.
  • Valuation premium. At a P/E of 12.52 versus a peer median of 8.30 and EV/EBITDA of 8.08 versus 5.85, VZ priced for improvement that has not yet materialized in earnings.
  • Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0912 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.1674 in Q1 2026, with fund count declining from 66 to 63.

What would change my mind

Debt reduction or deleveraging plan. Verizon announces a credible debt paydown target or uses FCF above $20B to materially reduce total debt below $190Bbullish
Operating margin recovery. Quarterly operating margin re-expands above 22% or EPS returns to positive YoY growthbullish
Further margin or earnings deterioration. FY2026 operating margin falls below 21% or EPS declines further below $4.00bearish
Smart money continued selling. Smart money score deteriorates below -0.15 with fund count dropping below 60 in subsequent 13F filingsbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on VZ; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$11.0B0.2% of fund
State Street$8.9B0.3% of fund
Charles Schwab Investment Management$5.4B0.7% of fund
Geode Capital Management$4.5B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.3B0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$3.0B0.2% of fund

148 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 440 Form 4 filings, net −$48.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about VZ

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Communication Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.1×9.8×26.3×
EV/EBITDA7.9×7.4×
P/S1.40×1.25×
P/B1.9×1.7×

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.01σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-2.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $20.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

61 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$49

$46$53 · +3% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 23 buy or overweight
  • 35 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 8.4× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
VZVerizon Communications Inc.$194B12.1×7.9×59.1%11.6%16%
CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.$16B3.0×5.6×56.6%9.1%30%
CMCSAComcast Corporation$80B7.3×4.8×69.4%9.0%12%
DISThe Walt Disney Company$180B21.3×9.5×37.6%8.7%8%
TAT&T Inc.$174B8.4×5.9×59.7%16.9%19%
TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.$178B17.3×10.3×54.5%11.5%18%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 19.3×FY25 10.0×

What its sector has traded at

Communication Services
FY14 34.0×FY26 29.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$119$46.87 · +155%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$78$46.87 · +67%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $47.30
52-week range$38 – $52
Analyst targets$46 – $53
Standard DCF$119 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $46.87
Levered DCF$78 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $46.87
At own 5y-median P/E (10×)$38
At 5y P/E range (8–14×)$30 – $52
At sector P/E (26×)$101

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.