Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
WAB continues to execute at a high level, with Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.83 beating the $2.73 consensus and GAAP EPS up 33.7% YoY, alongside raised FY2026 guidance of $10.60–$10.90 adjusted EPS on $12.3–$12.6B revenue.
However, at $283.43 the stock trades at 38.1x P/E and 22.0x EV/EBITDA — roughly 52% above peer medians on both metrics — while total debt jumped to $5.54B in FY2025 from $3.98B the prior year and FCF declined to $1.50B from $1.63B. With insiders persistently net selling ($80.9M in dispositions over 24 months, zero acquisitions), the growth story is real but largely priced in at this premium.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation. At 38.1x P/E and 22.0x EV/EBITDA, WAB trades ~52% above peer medians (25.0x P/E, 14.4x EV/EBITDA), leaving little room for disappointment.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $5.54B in FY2025 from $3.98B in FY2024, while FCF margin compressed to 13.4% from 15.7%.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed $80.9M net with zero acquisitions across 298 transactions, including recent CEO sales in October 2026.
- Cost and supply-chain pressure. Per recent previews, rising costs and supply-chain disruptions may cloud beat prospects despite double-digit growth expectations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates and news, Q3 2026 · news, 6 Oct · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on WAB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 39.2% over twelve months, from $200.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $278.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $305.79 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 8.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.3M, on 22 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WAB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $5.8B | 0.3% |
| BlackRock | $3.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.0B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $753.5M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $671.6M | 0.0% |
| Select Equity Group | $652.9M | 3.2% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 298 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$80.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 49 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WAB
Orin answers questions about WAB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.6×above usual | 31.1× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.86×above usual | 2.34× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.4×above usual | 15.4× | — |
| P/B | 4.1×above usual | 2.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $341 (from $330 to $355) — 22% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$341
$330 – $355 · +22% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $47B | 34.6× | 21.4× | 35.0% | 11.2% | 12% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $29B | 20.7× | 12.9× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $45B | 27.8× | 19.2× | 25.6% | 13.0% | 55% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $29B | 30.8× | 16.5× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $39B | 36.0× | 21.3× | 31.7% | 19.4% | 25% |
| OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation | $28B | 19.0× | 14.7× | 30.2% | 10.2% | n/m |
| RKLBRocket Lab USA, Inc. | $35B | lost money | n/m | 37.3% | −21.5% | −8% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $34B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 65.7% | 5.5% | 22% |
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $28B | 32.0× | 16.3× | 67.7% | 27.7% | n/m |
| XYLXylem Inc. | $22B | 20.5× | 16.9× | 39.3% | 15.7% | 10% |
- RKLB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- OTIS, VRSK: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- RKLB: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $228 a share — 18% below the $278.19 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $228 | 18% below $278.19 |
| Levered | $243 | 13% below $278.19 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.