Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. WBD
WBD is a hold because the entire investment case hinges on the Paramount Skydance acquisition, which has moved from a regulatory speed bump to a genuine roadblock after California's AG cancelled settlement talks and accused Paramount of bad faith on August 24. The stock has rallied to $28.70 with an overbought RSI of 70.5, pricing in meaningful deal premium at 1.99x P/S versus a 1.61x peer median and 16.63x EV/EBITDA versus a 10.86x peer median.
Underlying fundamentals are mixed: FY2025 returned to profitability with $727M net income and debt was cut to $32.7B from $39.5B, but revenue fell 5.15% to $37.3B and gross margin collapsed from 41.58% to 28.18%. Smart money is heading for the exits with a score of 0.0184 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.1038 at year-end 2025, and CEO Zaslav sold shares at $28.00–$28.02 in mid-August.
What could go wrong
- Deal collapse. The 12-state antitrust lawsuit could block or indefinitely delay the $110B Paramount Skydance acquisition, removing the primary catalyst supporting the stock's premium valuation.
- Margin deterioration. Gross margin fell from 41.58% in FY2024 to 28.18% in FY2025, indicating structural cost or mix issues that could persist independent of the deal outcome.
- Revenue erosion. Revenue has declined for three consecutive years, falling to $37.3B in FY2025 from $41.3B in FY2023, reflecting cord-cutting and linear network headwinds.
- Insider and smart-money selling. CEO Zaslav exercised options and sold shares at $28.00–$28.02 in August 2026, while the smart money score dropped to 0.0184 from 0.1038 in six months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Technicals as of 2026-08-24 · Peer relative composite · FY2025 fundamentals and derived metrics · FY2025 vs FY2024 fundamentals. Orin's read on WBD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WBD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Millennium Management | $1.5B | 0.6% of fund |
122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 182 Form 4 filings, net −$207.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WBD
Orin answers questions about WBD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 17.5× | 4.5× | — |
| P/S | 2.14× | 0.67× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 0.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.09σ from its own mean).
10.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$31
$31 – $31 · +1% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $77B | — | 17.5× | 43.4% | -8.8% | -9% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $80B | 7.3× | 4.8× | 69.4% | 9.0% | 12% |
| FOXAFox Corporation | $28B | 14.6× | 9.3× | 49.4% | 9.8% | 15% |
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39B | — | 24.2× | 44.8% | 0.5% | 73% |
| TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 62.6× | 11.5× | 54.1% | 4.3% | 6% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $198 | $26.39 · +651% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $62 | $26.39 · +135% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.