Workday, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Workday's operating leverage story remains compelling — FY2026 operating margin expanded to 10.7% from 4.9% the prior year on 13.1% revenue growth, with free cash flow of $2.777B at a 29.1% FCF margin, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters including a 5.4% surprise in the most recent quarter.
However, revenue growth is decelerating steadily (Q2 FY2027 at 12.9% YoY vs 16.4% in FY2025), the stock trades at a 74.4% P/E premium to the peer median of 22.10, and insiders have sold a net $786M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions. The October 2026 Analyst Day spotlighting AI agents and $600M ARR offers a credible growth path, but with a recent analyst downgrade and valuation already pricing in significant execution, a hold is warranted until evidence of AI-driven reacceleration materializes.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 38.55x P/E and 29.42x EV/EBITDA — 74.4% and 64.2% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment on AI monetization or margin trajectory could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Revenue deceleration. YoY revenue growth has declined from 16.4% in FY2025 to 13.1% in FY2026, with the most recent quarter at 12.9%; further deceleration would undermine the growth premium.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 399 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, netting -4.5M shares worth -$786M, including recent October 2026 sales by David Duffield and the Chief Accounting Officer.
- AI monetization uncertainty. The Analyst Day pivot to agent-based and consumption-oriented revenue is strategically sound but unproven; if $600M ARR fails to scale or cannibalizes existing subscription revenue, the thesis weakens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on WDAY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 14.0% over twelve months, from $238.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $205.46 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $239.92 on 31 Oct 2025; the last close is 14.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 22.4M, on 25 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All WDAY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $1.6B | 4.5% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $1.4B | 4.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $997.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $721.7M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $566.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $442.2M | 0.0% |
96 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 596 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$786.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 38 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WDAY
Orin answers questions about WDAY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 41.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 41.5× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.88×below usual | 8.23× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 7.9×near usual | 8.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 55.1× to 2108× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 35.6× to 231× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $202 (from $140 to $275) — 2% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$202
$140 – $275 · −2% against the last close
- 17 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 41.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (ADP 26.7×, PAYX 21.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 41.5× | 31.5× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
| ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc. | $116B | 26.7× | 18.2× | 48.2% | 20.1% | 70% |
| NSPInsperity, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 34.0× | 12.8% | −0.2% | −25% |
| PAYXPaychex, Inc. | $39B | 21.6× | 14.0× | 74.4% | 27.4% | 47% |
- NSP: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 41.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now41.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $121 a share — 41% below the $205.49 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $121 | 41% below $205.49 |
| Levered | $159 | 22% below $205.49 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.