Orin
WDAYNasdaq·Software - Application

Workday, Inc. WDAY

Market cap $50.2BP/E 38.9× trailingGross margin 75.8%
$192.38
+4.15 (+2.20%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $110.36 – $249.85
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Workday's Q2 FY2027 results (revenue $2.649B, up 12.8% YoY; EPS $2.75 beating $2.62 consensus) confirm the operating leverage thesis, with FY2026 operating margin expanding to 10.72% from 4.91% and FCF reaching $2.777B at a 29.07% margin. At 41.6x P/E, WDAY trades at only a ~10% premium to the peer median of 37.9x while offering a 49% P/S discount (5.28x vs 10.4x), making it one of the more reasonably valued large-cap software names.

RSI has cooled to 66.2 from the 75.2 level noted in the prior assessment, and the stock at $204.72 is consolidating rather than in a parabolic breakout, offering a more constructive entry than the overbought conditions that justified the prior hold.

What could go wrong

  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $649M over 24 months (403 sales vs 80 acquisitions) signal those closest to the company are not accumulating despite improving fundamentals.
  • Technical overextension. Stock at $204.72 trades roughly 30% above its 50-day MA of $157.34 and 27% above its 200-day MA of $160.84, leaving it vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
  • Revenue growth deceleration. FY2026 revenue growth of 13.1% is down from 16.35% in FY2025 and 20.96% in FY2023, and Q2 FY2027 total revenue growth of 12.8% shows no reacceleration yet.
  • Acquisition premium unwind. The prior run-up was partly driven by Silver Lake acquisition talks; if those negotiations stall or collapse, the takeout premium embedded in the price could unwind rapidly.

What would change my mind

Subscription revenue reacceleration. Quarterly subscription revenue growth exceeds 15% YoY for two consecutive quartersbullish
Operating margin expansion. Quarterly non-GAAP operating margin exceeds 13%bullish
Insider sentiment shift. Net insider transactions turn positive over a 3-month window or a cluster buy emergesbullish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below the 200-day MA of $160.84 on heavy volumebearish

Where this comes from: PRNewsWire press release 2026-08-27 · Zacks 2026-08-27 · derived_metrics FY2026 vs FY2025 · fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on WDAY; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.6B0.0% of fund
Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management$1.6B4.5% of fund
Eagle Capital Management$1.4B4.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$1.2B0.0% of fund
Invesco$997.1M0.1% of fund

94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 526 Form 4 filings, net −$742.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E38.9×53.3×
EV/EBITDA32.1×102.9×
P/S4.96×8.23×
P/B7.4×8.3×

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.49σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

6.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

81 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$204

$140$275 · +6% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 41 buy or overweight
  • 37 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 35.9× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
WDAYWorkday, Inc.$50B38.9×32.1×75.8%12.3%17%
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.$46B28.0×19.7×91.2%21.1%53%
CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.$85B61.1×39.5×88.5%23.6%23%
CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock$47B36.3×67.4%-25.4%-45%
DDOGDatadog, Inc.$90B343.2×79.5%4.5%5%
FICOFair Isaac Corporation$19B25.3×19.2×85.1%34.1%-33%
FTNTFortinet, Inc.$131B62.5×44.5×80.4%28.2%188%
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.$76B35.9×22.4×50.0%17.4%86%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 8.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY24 55.1×FY26 67.5×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$135$139.93 · −3%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$177$139.93 · +27%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $192.38
52-week range$110 – $250
Analyst targets$140 – $275
Standard DCF$135 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $139.93
Levered DCF$177 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $139.93
At own 5y-median P/E (66×)$328
At 5y P/E range (-126–2157×)$-623 – $10678
At sector P/E (53×)$264

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.