WEC Energy Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
WEC Energy Group trades at $103.74, below both its 50-day ($105.64) and 200-day ($111.23) moving averages, with RSI neutral at 50.09 and MACD histogram turning positive at +0.447.
The P/E of 19.95 is now roughly in line with the peer median of 19.92, a meaningful compression from the premium that existed at the prior hold verdict, but the P/S of 3.33 still carries a 22.3% premium to peers. FY2025 revenue grew 14.0% to $9.8B with gross margin expanding to 50.6%, yet EPS remained flat at $4.83, free cash flow was deeply negative at -$1.02B against $4.4B in capex, and total debt climbed to $22.3B. Consistent quarterly EPS beats — including Q2 2026's $0.91 exceeding estimates by 13.2% — and the data-center demand narrative with prospective 400 to 500-megawatt customers offer upside optionality, but until free cash flow stabilizes and the stock reclaims a key moving average, the risk/reward remains balanced.
What could go wrong
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF was -$1.02B with capex of $4.4B, and FCF margin was -10.4%. Sustained capital intensity without offsetting rate recovery could pressure the balance sheet.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $22.3B in FY2025 from $20.3B in FY2024 and $18.8B in FY2023, while stockholders' equity was $13.6B, elevating financial risk in a higher-rate environment.
- Valuation premium on stagnant earnings. EPS was flat at $4.83 in FY2025 (0% growth), yet the stock trades at a 22.3% P/S premium and 9.8% EV/EBITDA premium to peer medians, limiting margin of safety.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 136,592 shares for -$15.26M across 31 dispositions with zero open-market common stock acquisitions except one EVP purchase of 2,800 shares at $106.45 in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 9 Oct · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 earnings vs estimates and results. Orin's read on WEC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.5% over twelve months, from $116.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $111.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $118.85 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 6.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.8M, on 12 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WEC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Wells Fargo | $1.0B | 0.2% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $680.8M | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $629.7M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $611.3M | 0.0% |
98 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 165 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WEC
Orin answers questions about WEC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.0×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.4×near usual | 21.0× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 3.58×near usual | 3.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4×near usual | 13.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×near usual | 2.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $116 (from $107 to $127) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$116
$107 – $127 · +4% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $28B | 30.9× | 7.4× | 37.2% | 5.5% | 7% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| OGEOGE Energy Corp. | $10B | 21.4× | 11.1× | 53.6% | 14.6% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $118 a share — 6% above the $111.20 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $118 | 6% above $111.20 |
| Levered | $186 | 67% above $111.20 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.