WEC Energy Group, Inc. WEC
WEC Energy's Q2 2026 EPS of $0.91 (up $0.15 year-over-year) and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.51–$5.61 per share signal that the $37.5B capex program is beginning to convert into earnings growth after a flat FY2025 at $4.83 EPS, with FY2025 revenue up 13.96% to $9.8B and gross margin expanding to 50.5%. However, FY2025 FCF of -$1.0B and total debt of $22.3B reflect the heavy balance-sheet cost of this build-out, and at $109.34 the stock trades at a 10% P/E premium to the peer median of 19.07x while sitting below both its 50-day ($113.01) and 200-day ($112.04) moving averages.
With smart money essentially neutral at -0.0001 as of 2026-06-30 and the MACD histogram only刚刚 turning positive, the fundamental improvement is real but not yet reflected in technicals or flows; the risk/reward remains balanced pending evidence that FCF stabilizes and the stock reclaims its trend lines.
What could go wrong
- Capex execution and FCF strain. FY2025 capex of $4.4B drove FCF to -$1.0B; sustained negative FCF could pressure the balance sheet and limit financial flexibility if rate recovery lags spending.
- Rising debt burden. Total debt grew to $22.3B in FY2025 from $20.3B in FY2024; higher interest costs could offset margin gains if rates remain elevated.
- Valuation premium. At a 10.25% P/E premium and 56.14% P/S premium to peer medians, any earnings shortfall versus 2026 guidance could trigger a sharper de-rating.
- Data center demand disappointment. The $37.5B capex plan through 2030 is predicated on AI-driven load growth; slower-than-expected data center buildout could leave the plan oversized.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, 2026-08-01 · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on WEC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WEC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | $1.0B | 0.2% of fund |
95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 162 Form 4 filings, net $862K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WEC
Orin answers questions about WEC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.5× | 21.0× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6× | 13.9× | — |
| P/S | 3.25× | 3.46× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.17σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$120
$114 – $127 · +18% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $33B | 19.5× | 13.6× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $28B | 17.4× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.7× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $38B | 16.8× | 9.9× | 76.0% | 12.5% | 9% |
| ESEversource Energy | $24B | 16.8× | 9.7× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.3× | 11.6× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| PCGPG&E Corporation | $33B | 9.0× | 9.2× | 56.2% | 12.3% | 10% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $34B | 16.7× | 13.3× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $153 | $114.78 · +33% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $235 | $114.78 · +105% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.