Welltower Inc. WELL
Welltower's secular seniors-housing tailwind is undeniable — revenue grew 35.8% in FY2025 to $10.7B, Q2 2026 FFO beat estimates on 20.5% same-store SHO NOI growth, and management raised full-year guidance. However, FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 3.3% from 14.6% in 2024 despite the revenue surge, with EPS declining 11.5% YoY, signaling that acquisition integration and depreciation are masking true earnings power.
At $240.01 the stock trades at 124.3x earnings and 63.2x EV/EBITDA — a 168% premium to the peer median EV/EBITDA of 23.6x — pricing in years of flawless execution with no margin of safety. The improving smart-money score (0.20 as of Q2 2026, up from 0.04 in Q4 2024) and positive technicals (above both 50-day and 200-day MAs) support the momentum, but the valuation premium and margin compression keep this a hold rather than a buy.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 124.3x PE and 63.2x EV/EBITDA — 84% and 168% premiums to peer medians respectively — any deceleration in SHO NOI growth or FFO could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Operating margin deterioration. FY2025 operating margin fell to 3.3% from 14.6% in 2024 while revenue grew 35.8%, suggesting acquisitions are diluting near-term profitability faster than the market may appreciate.
- Leverage growth. Total debt rose to $21.4B in FY2025 from $16.8B in 2024, increasing interest-rate sensitivity in a REIT structure reliant on external financing for acquisitions.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insider net value is -$16.3M despite 62 acquisition-coded transactions, most at $0 cost (grants), suggesting no meaningful open-market buying at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 eps_growth_yoy · peer_relative as of 2026-08-24. Orin's read on WELL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WELL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $9.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $7.7B | 1.4% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $4.5B | 0.5% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $4.4B | 0.3% of fund |
108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 81 Form 4 filings, net −$13.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WELL
Orin answers questions about WELL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 119.1× | 131.9× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 60.8× | 29.7× | — |
| P/S | 13.14× | 7.74× | — |
| P/B | 3.5× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.34σ from its own mean).
22.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$258
$226 – $275 · +12% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLWelltower Inc. | $166B | 119.1× | 60.8× | 38.8% | 10.7% | 3% |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation | $80B | 23.5× | 17.5× | 73.2% | 30.9% | 90% |
| DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc. | $67B | 83.6× | 24.5× | 13.8% | 11.7% | 3% |
| EQIXEquinix, Inc. | $102B | 66.5× | 27.8× | 51.6% | 15.6% | 11% |
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | $125B | 29.8× | 19.1× | 29.1% | 45.8% | 8% |
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $42B | 157.5× | 22.3× | -2.6% | 4.1% | 2% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 79.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $230 | $211.38 · +9% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $246 | $211.38 · +16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.