Welltower Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Welltower's secular seniors-housing growth is evident in Q2 2026 revenue of $3.54B, up 40.9% year-over-year, with the company beating EPS estimates across recent quarters — yet FY2025 operating margin compressed to 3.3% from 14.6% in FY2024 and EPS declined 11.5% year-over-year, showing acquisition-driven top-line growth is not yet converting to earnings power.
At a PE of 121x and EV/EBITDA of 61.7x — premiums of 86.8% and 176.7% to peer medians — the stock prices in years of flawless execution with minimal margin of safety. With shares below the 50-day moving average and a negative MACD histogram, technicals are cautious even as smart-money fund count rises to 66; the combination of extreme valuation and unresolved margin compression warrants a hold pending Q3 2026 results on October 26.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. PE of 121x and EV/EBITDA of 61.7x sit 86.8% and 176.7% above peer medians, leaving no room for execution missteps.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin of 3.3% is down sharply from 14.6% in FY2024 despite revenue growth of 35.8%, with Q4 2025 posting a negative operating income of $943.7M that dragged the full year.
- Leverage growth. Total debt rose to $21.4B in FY2025 from $16.8B in FY2024 to fund acquisitions, increasing balance sheet risk if rates remain elevated.
- Technical deterioration. Last close of $232.96 is below the 50-day MA of $236.97 with a negative MACD histogram, suggesting near-term momentum has stalled.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison, 28 Sep. Orin's read on WELL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 24.2% over twelve months, from $182.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $226.72 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $252.07 on 24 Jul 2026; the last close is 10.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.2M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WELL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $17.7B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.9B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $9.6B | 0.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $4.5B | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $4.4B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $4.4B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.2B | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $4.1B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.2% |
111 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 82 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$14.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WELL
Orin answers questions about WELL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 110× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 132×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 110×below usual | 132× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 11.9×above usual | 7.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.0×above usual | 29.7× | — |
| P/B | 3.4×above usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $257 (from $226 to $275) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$257
$226 – $275 · +13% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 110× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DOC 54.3×, VTR 203×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLWelltower Inc. | $163B | 110× | 49.0× | n/a | 10.7% | 3% |
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | $13B | 54.3× | 12.5× | n/a | 8.6% | 3% |
| VTRVentas, Inc. | $43B | 203× | 23.7× | n/a | 3.0% | 2% |
- WELL, DOC, VTR: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 110× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now110×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $198 a share — 12% below the $226.57 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $198 | 12% below $226.57 |
| Levered | $212 | 6% below $226.57 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.