Westlake Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Westlake's Q2 2026 turnaround—revenue up 10.8% YoY to $3.27B, operating income of $364M, and EPS of $2.01 beating estimates by 9.8%—marks the first credible inflection after FY2025's catastrophic $1.51B net loss on a 2.6% gross margin.
However, the stock has continued sliding to $62.29 as of 9 Oct, trading 14% below its 50-day MA of $72.15 and 29% below its 200-day MA of $87.99, with an RSI of 32.5 and a negative MACD histogram, indicating the market remains unconvinced. With total debt at $6.41B, no insider open-market buying in 24 months (only RSU grants), and just one profitable quarter after four consecutive loss-making quarters, the recovery needs Q3 2026 confirmation before upgrading.
What could go wrong
- European chemical demand deterioration. The Cologne PVC plant closure announced 29 Sep cites weak European demand, high energy costs, and Asian import pressure, suggesting structural headwinds in a key segment that could persist beyond cost actions.
- Balance sheet strain. Total debt rose to $6.41B at FY2025 from $5.28B at FY2024 while stockholders' equity fell to $8.79B from $10.53B, increasing leverage at a time of fragile profitability.
- Recovery stalls after one quarter. Q1 2026 still posted an operating loss of $154M and EPS of -$1.31; if Q3 2026 reverts toward Q1's weakness rather than extending Q2's improvement, the turnaround narrative collapses.
- Technical breakdown accelerates. The stock at $62.29 is below both key moving averages with RSI at 32.5 and MACD histogram negative, raising the risk of further selling pressure if support levels fail.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 4 Aug · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on WLK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 17.0% over twelve months, from $79.73 on 27 Oct 2025 to $66.17 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $123.39 on 7 Apr 2026; the last close is 46.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.8M, on 15 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WLK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $240.5M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $207.5M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $161.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $127.9M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $114.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $106.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $106.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $93.5M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $77.0M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $74.7M | 0.1% |
70 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 128 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WLK
Orin answers questions about WLK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 0.74× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.06×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.74×below usual | 1.06× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2×above usual | 6.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.0×below usual | 1.4× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.9× to 37.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $83.11 (from $66 to $115) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$83.11
$66 – $115 · +26% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 17.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 63.8× | 11.5× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| CECelanese Corporation | $5B | lost money | 42.3× | 20.2% | −12.0% | −29% |
| DOWDow Inc. | $24B | lost money | 11.2× | 11.1% | −1.9% | −5% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | $2B | lost money | 13.4× | 13.5% | −2.9% | −6% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $22B | lost money | 17.7× | 13.2% | −1.1% | −3% |
| OLNOlin Corporation | $2B | lost money | 10.5× | 6.9% | −2.1% | −8% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
- CE, DOW, HUN, LYB, OLN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $94 a share — 42% above the $66.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $94 | 42% above $66.08 |
| Levered | $86 | 31% above $66.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.