Waste Management, Inc. WM
WM remains a hold as the franchise's structural strengths are offset by near-term margin pressure and bearish technicals. FY2025 revenue grew 14.2% to $25.2B with FCF margin expanding to 11.17%, but diluted EPS slipped to $6.70 from $6.81 as interest costs on $22.9B of total debt weighed on net income, which declined 1.38% YoY.
The stock trades at 31.33x P/E — roughly in line with the peer median of 31.30x — while EV/EBITDA of 14.81x sits at a 22.6% discount to peers, but with RSI at 40.2, MACD histogram negative, and price below both the 50-day ($228.08) and 200-day ($224.58) moving averages as of 2026-08-25, there is no technical urgency to add. Smart money has been persistently negative (score -0.2815 as of 2026-06-30), reinforcing a wait-and-see stance.
What could go wrong
- Debt servicing costs. Total debt of $22.9B against equity of $9.99B as of FY2025; rising interest expenses already contributed to a 1.38% net income decline despite 14.2% revenue growth.
- Valuation compression. P/E of 31.33x leaves little room for error; a GuruFocus DCF published 2026-08-25 pegs intrinsic value at $133 vs. a price near $226, suggesting meaningful downside if growth disappoints.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score has been negative for six of the last eight quarters (-0.2815 as of 2026-06-30), and BNY Mellon reduced its stake by 2.3% in Q2 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $222.13 is below both MA50 ($228.08) and MA200 ($224.58) with bearish MACD; a sustained break below $220 could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025. Orin's read on WM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.0B | 17.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
126 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings, net $3.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WM
Orin answers questions about WM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.3× | 31.5× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1× | 15.4× | — |
| P/S | 3.24× | 3.55× | — |
| P/B | 8.4× | 9.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.84σ from its own mean).
13.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$244
$244 – $244 · +17% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $83B | 29.3× | 14.1× | 35.0% | 11.1% | 29% |
| CTASCintas Corporation | $77B | 37.4× | 26.8× | 51.0% | 17.8% | 42% |
| EMREmerson Electric Co. | $87B | 33.7× | 19.1× | 53.2% | 13.8% | 13% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.7× | 18.9× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $88B | 25.3× | 27.0× | 36.7% | 14.3% | 27% |
| MMM3M Company | $88B | 30.1× | 17.9× | 39.4% | 11.9% | 77% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $73B | 16.3× | 11.7× | 20.1% | 10.5% | 27% |
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $66B | 30.2× | 14.2× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 33.5× | 18.6× | 59.6% | 21.3% | -21% |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $81B | 17.8× | 9.9× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $327 | $224.77 · +45% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $328 | $224.77 · +46% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.