Waste Management, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
WM is a hold at $226.86 as of 16 Oct, with the stock now overbought (RSI 72.84) after a sharp rally from the prior $207 level and trading at 32.0x earnings — a 103% premium to the 15.75x peer median — despite FY2025 net income declining 1.4% on margin compression (net margin fell from 12.5% to 10.7%).
Revenue growth has decelerated from 14.2% in FY2025 to just 4.0% YoY in Q2 2026, and insiders remain net sellers with -$43.8M in net dispositions over 24 months. The defensive cash flow story ($6.04B operating cash flow, $2.82B FCF in FY2025) and a reasonable 14.92x EV/EBITDA versus the 15.60x peer median support the floor, but the earnings multiple and technical extension leave limited near-term upside.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium unsustainable. PE of 32.0 sits 103% above the 15.75 peer median; any disappointment in Q3 2026 earnings could trigger a sharp de-rating from overbought levels (RSI 72.84 as of 16 Oct).
- Revenue growth deceleration. YoY revenue growth slowed from 14.2% in FY2025 to 3.5% in Q1 2026 and 4.0% in Q2 2026, suggesting the acquisition-driven top-line surge is fading.
- Margin compression and debt burden. FY2025 net margin compressed to 10.7% from 12.5% in FY2024 while total debt remained elevated at $22.9B, pressuring net income which fell 1.4% despite double-digit revenue growth.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 185,840 shares worth $43.8M with 42 dispositions versus 1 acquisition; recent September 2026 transactions show continued selling by the VP & Chief Accounting Officer and SVP of HR.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and fundamentals. Orin's read on WM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.3% over twelve months, from $213.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $235.81 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $246.51 on 9 Mar 2026; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.9M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.8B | 0.1% |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.0B | 17.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.0B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.3B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.6B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.1B | 0.1% |
128 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$43.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WM
Orin answers questions about WM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 30.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.8×near usual | 31.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.62×near usual | 3.55× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8×below usual | 16.2× | — |
| P/B | 9.5×near usual | 9.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 16 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $225 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 5% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$225
$225 – $225 · −5% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 30.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 6 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (CLH 37.8×, RSG 33.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMWaste Management, Inc. | $94B | 30.8× | 12.8× | 27.3% | 11.8% | 31% |
| CLHClean Harbors, Inc. | $17B | 37.8× | 15.8× | 26.6% | 7.0% | 16% |
| CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc. | $6B | n/m | 18.3× | 25.4% | 0.3% | 0% |
| GFLGFL Environmental Inc. | $16B | lost money | 17.6× | 20.0% | −3.3% | −3% |
| NVRIEnviri Corporation | $659M | lost money | n/m | −6.4% | −34.4% | n/m |
| PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. | $272M | lost money | n/m | −6.3% | −39.5% | −44% |
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $72B | 33.4× | 15.3× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
- CWST: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- GFL, NVRI, PESI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- NVRI: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- NVRI, PESI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 30.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now30.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $211 a share — 11% below the $235.74 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $211 | 11% below $235.74 |
| Levered | $262 | 11% above $235.74 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.