The Williams Companies, Inc. WMB
WMB remains a hold. The strategic narrative is compelling — FY2025 revenue grew 13.78% YoY and EPS rose 17.58%, the $5.5B Momentum Midstream acquisition extends Haynesville exposure toward LNG demand, and management raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to a ~$8.4B midpoint with an 11% growth CAGR target through 2030.
However, the valuation premium is extreme at 29.8x earnings versus a peer median of 16.7x (78% above), and the balance sheet is under real strain: FY2025 capex nearly doubled to $4.9B, compressing free cash flow to $1.0B from $2.4B while total debt reached $29.4B. Technicals have improved since early August — price at $75.13 now sits above both the 50-day ($73.32) and 200-day ($69.22) MAs with a bullish MACD crossover — but the stock already prices in flawless execution that the Q2 earnings miss and rising leverage have not yet fully validated.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 29.8x earnings (78% above the peer median of 16.7x) and 7.53x sales (385% above the peer median of 1.55x), WMB leaves no room for execution missteps; any guidance cut could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Leverage and FCF compression. FY2025 total debt rose to $29.4B while free cash flow collapsed to $1.0B from $2.4B as capex nearly doubled to $4.9B, raising financing-cost sensitivity if rates stay elevated or if the Momentum deal integration underperforms.
- Smart money fading. The smart money score declined from 0.1844 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.156 as of 2026-06-30, with fund count dropping from 68 to 65, suggesting institutional enthusiasm is cooling even as the stock rallies.
- Insider selling. Recent insider transactions in August 2026 are predominantly dispositions by the SVP & General Counsel and an EVP, with no meaningful cluster buying to offset the selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on WMB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WMB filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 3 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 21 Aug | Michael A. Creel will retire from the Williams Companies, Inc. Board of Directors at the 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, having notified the Company on August 17, 2026, that… | read |
| 10-Q | 3 Aug | Net income attributable to The Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Aug | The Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 13 Jul | The Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 1 Jul | The Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 20 May | The Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 4 May | Net income attributable to Williams Companies, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $13.4B | 2.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $5.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $3.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.5B | 0.4% of fund |
116 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 155 Form 4 filings, net $25.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 16 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WMB
Orin answers questions about WMB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.2× | 20.9× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8× | 11.0× | — |
| P/S | 7.13× | 3.89× | — |
| P/B | 6.6× | 3.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.00σ from its own mean).
27.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$87
$75 – $103 · +22% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $87B | 28.2× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.1× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $113B | 13.4× | 8.0× | 11.6% | 5.6% | 49% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $57B | 15.6× | 11.4× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 81.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $64 | $72.87 · −11% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $57 | $72.87 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.