Walmart Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Walmart's fundamental execution remains strong — FY2027 Q2 revenue of $187.9B grew 5.9% YoY with EPS of $0.80 beating estimates by 9.3%, and management raised FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.80–$2.87 — but at $118.81 the stock trades at 42.9x earnings, a 157% premium to the peer median of 16.7x, with RSI at 73.0 signaling overbought conditions.
Insiders have sold a net 48.8M shares ($5.24B) over 24 months with zero acquisitions, and smart money scores have declined from 0.21 to 0.09 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun. The business quality and growth trajectory justify staying invested, but the stretched valuation, overbought technicals, and persistent insider selling argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 42.9x PE versus a peer median of 16.7x, any deceleration in revenue or EPS growth could trigger a sharp multiple contraction given the 157% premium.
- Diesel fuel cost headwind. Per Deutsche Bank analysis reported on 17 Oct, Walmart expects higher diesel prices to wipe out its $2.9B tariff refund benefit by end of 2027, pressuring margins and pricing strategy.
- Insider selling persistence. Zero insider acquisitions against 175 dispositions totaling $5.24B over 24 months, with the CEO and EVPs selling as recently as 15 Oct, signals no confidence-based buying at these levels.
- Macroeconomic pressure. September CPI at 3.7% with likely continued Fed rate hikes into 2027 could pressure consumer spending and raise Walmart's interest costs on $67.1B in total debt.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · earnings vs estimates, 20 Aug · news, 16 Oct · peer comparison, 16 Oct. Orin's read on WMT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 14.2% over twelve months, from $104.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $119.32 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $134.20 on 19 May 2026; the last close is 11.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 415.1M, on 16 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All WMT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $40.1B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $32.4B | 0.7% |
| State Street | $21.3B | 0.6% |
| Invesco | $16.8B | 1.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $12.0B | 0.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $11.0B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $10.7B | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $10.0B | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $7.5B | 0.5% |
| Norges Bank | $6.5B | 0.6% |
198 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 394 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$5.2B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WMT
Orin answers questions about WMT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 33.5×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.1×above usual | 33.5× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 1.29×above usual | 0.69× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6×above usual | 14.7× | — |
| P/B | 9.7×above usual | 5.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $130 (from $110 to $155) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$130
$110 – $155 · +9% against the last close
- 26 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 15.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $950B | 43.1× | 21.6× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $440B | 47.7× | 29.8× | 12.8% | 3.0% | 28% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $23B | 15.1× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $67B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now43.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $115 a share — 3% below the $118.83 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $115 | 3% below $118.83 |
| Levered | $164 | 38% above $118.83 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.