Walmart Inc. WMT
Walmart's FY2026 (ended January 2026) fundamentals are durable — $713.2B in revenue (up 4.73% YoY), $2.73 EPS (up 13.28% YoY), and $41.6B in operating cash flow — but the stock still trades at 37.2x earnings, a 74.7% premium to the peer median of 21.3x, even after a roughly 12% post-earnings selloff that has pushed RSI to 33.2 and the price below both the 50-day ($112.0) and 200-day ($118.6) moving averages. Smart money turned net negative as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 (score -0.26, down from +0.40 in Q1), and insiders have sold a net 78.8M shares over 24 months with no cluster buying, suggesting the fundamental quality is real but the risk/reward at this multiple does not justify adding until either the multiple compresses further or technical and ownership signals stabilize.
What could go wrong
- Persistent valuation premium. At 37.2x earnings — 74.7% above the peer median of 21.3x and EV/EBITDA of 20.6x vs. peer median 12.7x — the stock remains priced for sustained double-digit EPS growth even after the selloff.
- Deteriorating smart-money positioning. Smart money score dropped from +0.40 (Q1 2026) to -0.26 (Q2 2026) as of 2026-06-30, indicating institutional sentiment has turned net negative.
- Relentless insider selling. Over 24 months insiders sold a net 78.8M shares worth $5.36B, with 269 dispositions versus 97 acquisitions and no cluster buying; recent August 2026 transactions were all sales.
- Technical breakdown. Last close of $103.09 sits ~13% below the 50-day MA ($112.0) and ~13% below the 200-day MA ($118.6), with a negative MACD histogram (-0.99), signaling the downtrend is intact despite oversold RSI.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics FY2026 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-28 · smart_money points · insider summary. Orin's read on WMT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WMT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $32.4B | 0.7% of fund |
| State Street | $21.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Invesco | $16.8B | 1.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $12.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $11.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $10.7B | 0.5% of fund |
195 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 375 Form 4 filings, net −$5.4B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WMT
Orin answers questions about WMT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.9× | 33.6× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.0× | 14.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.20× | 0.69× | — |
| P/B | 8.9× | 5.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.81σ from its own mean).
22.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $14.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$129
$110 – $155 · +17% against today's price
- 47 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $880B | 39.9× | 22.0× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $401B | 45.4× | 27.0× | 12.9% | 3.0% | 28% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $379B | 26.5× | 20.7× | 61.9% | 28.6% | 43% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $35B | 30.8× | 10.8× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $351B | 21.8× | 17.7× | 50.2% | 18.4% | 30% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $71B | 16.1× | 9.9× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 82.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $148 | $119.58 · +24% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $209 | $119.58 · +75% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.