Wolfspeed Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Wolfspeed's conditional $1.5 billion, 30-year loan commitment from the U.S.
Department of War (announced October 7, 2026) materially reduces going-concern risk that drove the prior 'avoid' call, but the core operating business remains structurally impaired. FY2026 revenue fell 12.2% YoY to $665.1M with gross margin at -34.9% and free cash flow of -$380.1M, and Q4 FY2026 revenue deteriorated further to $149.6M, down 24.1% YoY. The stock has already surged on the loan news to $30.54 as of 9 Oct, pricing in much of the liquidity relief while the loan remains conditional and carries warrants for up to 7.5% of fully diluted equity.
What could go wrong
- Conditional loan not finalized. The $1.5B Department of War loan is a conditional commitment, not closed funding; failure to meet conditions could collapse the financing and revive going-concern concerns.
- Operational deterioration accelerating. Q4 FY2026 revenue declined 24.1% YoY, the worst quarterly drop in the data, with gross profit of -$36.8M and operating loss of -$115.4M, suggesting the business is still worsening.
- Dilution from warrants. The loan terms include warrants for up to 7.5% of fully diluted equity, adding to existing shareholder dilution risk on top of the stock's recent price surge.
- Persistent cash burn. FY2026 free cash flow was -$380.1M and operating cash flow was -$203.2M; even with the loan, the company needs a path to positive cash flow before funding is exhausted.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 7 Oct · fundamentals, year to 28 Jun · Q4 FY26 results · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on WOLF; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.4% over twelve months, from $30.89 on 27 Oct 2025 to $25.21 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $73.50 on 26 May 2026; the last close is 65.7% below it.
- The 50-day average starts on 8 Dec 2025, once there were 50 trading days to average.
- The 200-day average starts on 16 Jul 2026, once there were 200 trading days to average.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 33.7M, on 13 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WOLF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $147.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $126.4M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $113.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $112.3M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $109.7M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $99.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $97.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $66.6M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $48.8M | 0.0% |
| Think Investments | $43.5M | 5.1% |
66 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 58 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $862K. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WOLF
Orin answers questions about WOLF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.73× its yearly sales. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 39.5× |
| P/S | 1.73× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | — | — |
- Listed on 29 Sep 2025 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 4 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $25 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 1% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$25
$25 – $25 · −1% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. None of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLFWolfspeed Inc. | $1B | lost money | n/m | −30.3% | −89.8% | −66% |
| AIPArteris, Inc. | $783M | lost money | n/m | 86.2% | −44.8% | n/m |
| AMBQAmbiq Micro, Inc. | $1B | lost money | n/m | 43.6% | −37.8% | −15% |
| AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | $560M | lost money | n/m | 22.6% | −6.9% | −6% |
| CEVACEVA, Inc. | $883M | lost money | n/m | 87.4% | −9.5% | −3% |
| POETPOET Technologies Inc. | $751M | lost money | n/m | −68.0% | below −1,000% | −20% |
- AIP, AMBQ, AOSL, CEVA, POET: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AIP: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- WOLF, AIP, AMBQ, AOSL, CEVA, POET: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- POET: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $44 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.