W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB
WRB remains a high-quality commercial-lines insurer with revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 and $3.47B in free cash flow, but gross margin compressed from 22.9% to 19.8% as gross profit fell to $2.91B from $3.12B, and EPS growth decelerated to just 2.1%. The stock trades at 14.3x trailing earnings — a 48% premium to the peer median of 9.6x — which leaves little room for error given the margin pressure.
Heavy insider accumulation (net 10.6M shares over 24 months) and a slightly positive smart-money score of 0.0156 as of Q2 2026 are encouraging, but the combination of valuation premium, contracting gross margins, and bearish technicals (MACD histogram at -0.41, price below the 50-day MA) argues for patience rather than adding at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin fell from 22.89% in 2024 to 19.81% in 2025 with gross profit declining to $2.91B from $3.12B, signaling underwriting or loss-cost pressure that could persist.
- Valuation premium. P/E of 14.26x is 48% above the peer median of 9.62x and EV/EBITDA of 10.66x is 43% above the median of 7.47x, leaving downside if growth does not re-accelerate.
- EPS growth stall. EPS growth decelerated to 2.1% in 2025 from 29.4% in 2024, and if margins continue to compress, earnings momentum could disappoint.
- Technical weakness. MACD histogram at -0.41 with the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $70.92 suggests near-term momentum has turned negative.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP derived_metrics FY2024 vs FY2025 · FMP derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on WRB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WRB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $588.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $582.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $354.6M | 0.0% of fund |
89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 136 Form 4 filings, net $704.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 31 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WRB
Orin answers questions about WRB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.8× | 14.7× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3× | 11.2× | — |
| P/S | 1.40× | 1.72× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 2.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.86σ from its own mean).
-6.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$69
$58 – $77 · +2% against today's price
- 7 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $58B | 4.5× | 3.7× | 42.2% | 19.2% | 43% |
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75B | 9.5× | 7.4× | 34.7% | 17.0% | 26% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $141 | $68.61 · +105% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $324 | $68.61 · +372% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.