Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company WTW
WTW's operational recovery is genuine — FY2025 diluted EPS rebounded to $16.26 from -$0.96, FCF improved to $1.546B, and Q2 2026 delivered 5% organic revenue growth with 100bps of margin expansion and 17% adjusted EPS growth — but the stock at $331.59 still trades at a 36% PE premium and 58% P/S premium to the peer median, with total debt having risen to $6.905B from $5.931B two years ago. Smart money flows remain slightly negative at -0.020 as of June 2026, and while RSI has cooled from 80 to 63, the MACD histogram has turned negative (-1.19), suggesting near-term momentum is fading.
The fundamental story is improving but the valuation already discounts much of that improvement.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. WTW trades at 20.3x PE vs peer median 14.9x and 3.05x P/S vs 1.92x; any disappointment in growth could trigger multiple contraction toward peer levels.
- Leverage deterioration. Total debt rose to $6.905B in FY2025 from $5.479B in FY2021 while equity declined from $13.26B to $7.976B, increasing balance sheet risk.
- Revenue trajectory. FY2025 revenue of $9.708B declined from $9.93B in FY2024 and $9.483B in FY2023, raising questions about whether organic growth can sustainably reaccelerate.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insider net value is -$36.7M despite a positive net share count of +45,661, indicating dollar-weighted disposition pressure from executives.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights · peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on WTW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WTW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $2.3B | 0.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $1.5B | 2.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $677.4M | 0.0% of fund |
73 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 410 Form 4 filings, net −$36.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WTW
Orin answers questions about WTW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.0× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2× | 14.8× | — |
| P/S | 2.70× | 3.22× | — |
| P/B | 3.6× | 2.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.49σ from its own mean).
6.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$354
$300 – $405 · +19% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $27B | 18.0× | 12.2× | 53.8% | 15.5% | 20% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33B | 7.3× | 6.5× | 46.2% | 24.4% | 20% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $20B | 16.7× | 11.2× | 59.0% | 17.6% | 10% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $34B | 8.1× | 7.9× | 43.9% | 15.0% | 23% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | $30B | 13.6× | 7.9× | 83.5% | 13.6% | 18% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 31.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.