Woodward, Inc. WWD
Woodward's growth trajectory is exceptional—FY2025 revenue reached $3.57B with EPS of $7.19, nearly tripling from $2.71 in FY2022, and management just raised FY26 EPS guidance to $9.30–$9.50 on a 21.2% Q3 sales surge and 43.2% adjusted EPS growth. However, at $370.56 the stock trades at 40.1x trailing earnings (+30% vs. peer median), 5.27x sales (+155% vs. peers), and 26.8x EV/EBITDA (+67% vs. peers), pricing in sustained perfection even after a ~14% pullback.
Persistent insider selling (-142K shares, -$49M over 24 months), a tepid smart money score of 0.06, and warnings that Q3 margin expansion included one-time benefits unlikely to recur all argue for patience rather than chasing.
What could go wrong
- Margin sustainability. Q3 gross margin expanded to 31.5% but included one-time benefits unlikely to recur; fading pricing tailwinds and heavy spending could compress margins going forward.
- Premium valuation. At 40.1x PE, 5.27x PS, and 26.8x EV/EBITDA—30–155% above peer medians—any earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider selling pressure. 24-month net insider dispositions of 142K shares worth $49M, with recent option exercises immediately sold at $356.82, signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- China exit and spending headwinds. News sources cite China exit effects and heavy capex (rising from $53M in FY2022 to $131M in FY2025) as factors clouding the growth path into 2027.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · insider transaction summary · Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-12. Orin's read on WWD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WWD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $996.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $614.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $537.5M | 0.0% of fund |
96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 197 Form 4 filings, net −$50.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 30 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WWD
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.3× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 4.64× | — | — |
| P/B | 7.9× | — | — |
22.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$422
$388 – $470 · +31% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $19B | 35.3× | 23.7× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
| JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $22B | 33.3× | 14.1× | 16.3% | 5.3% | 19% |
| KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $9B | 268.5× | 62.5× | 22.0% | 2.0% | 1% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. | $20B | 24.7× | 8.7× | 61.0% | 2.8% | 11% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.5× | 9.2× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| ULSUL Solutions Inc. | $13B | 26.0× | 13.6× | 50.2% | 16.0% | 38% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.