Orin
WWDNasdaq·Aerospace & Defense

Woodward, Inc. WWD

Market cap $19.2BP/E 35.3× trailingGross margin 29.5%
$322.18
−4.05 (−1.24%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $233.31 – $450.92
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 17 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Woodward's growth trajectory is exceptional—FY2025 revenue reached $3.57B with EPS of $7.19, nearly tripling from $2.71 in FY2022, and management just raised FY26 EPS guidance to $9.30–$9.50 on a 21.2% Q3 sales surge and 43.2% adjusted EPS growth. However, at $370.56 the stock trades at 40.1x trailing earnings (+30% vs. peer median), 5.27x sales (+155% vs. peers), and 26.8x EV/EBITDA (+67% vs. peers), pricing in sustained perfection even after a ~14% pullback.

Persistent insider selling (-142K shares, -$49M over 24 months), a tepid smart money score of 0.06, and warnings that Q3 margin expansion included one-time benefits unlikely to recur all argue for patience rather than chasing.

What could go wrong

  • Margin sustainability. Q3 gross margin expanded to 31.5% but included one-time benefits unlikely to recur; fading pricing tailwinds and heavy spending could compress margins going forward.
  • Premium valuation. At 40.1x PE, 5.27x PS, and 26.8x EV/EBITDA—30–155% above peer medians—any earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Insider selling pressure. 24-month net insider dispositions of 142K shares worth $49M, with recent option exercises immediately sold at $356.82, signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
  • China exit and spending headwinds. News sources cite China exit effects and heavy capex (rising from $53M in FY2022 to $131M in FY2025) as factors clouding the growth path into 2027.

What would change my mind

Margin normalization confirmed. FY26 Q4 or FY27 Q1 results show gross margins holding above 30% without one-time benefits, validating pricing power sustainability.bullish
Valuation compression to peer levels. Stock pulls back toward the 200-day MA of $353.63 or below, bringing PE closer to the 30.9x peer median and improving the risk/reward setup.bullish
Guidance miss or cut. Quarterly results fall short of the raised $9.30–$9.50 FY26 EPS guidance or management lowers outlook, exposing the premium valuation.bearish
Insider buying reversal. Cluster buying emerges from executives or directors, reversing the 24-month net selling trend and signaling internal confidence at current prices.bullish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · insider transaction summary · Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-12. Orin's read on WWD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$1.2B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1B0.1% of fund
State Street$996.5M0.0% of fund
Invesco$614.7M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$537.5M0.0% of fund

96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 197 Form 4 filings, net −$50.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 30 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E35.3×44.5×
EV/EBITDA23.7×
P/S4.64×
P/B7.9×
What the price assumes

22.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

21 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$422

$388$470 · +31% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 12 buy or overweight
  • 8 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.0× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
WWDWoodward, Inc.$19B35.3×23.7×29.5%13.2%22%
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.$22B33.3×14.1×16.3%5.3%19%
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.$9B268.5×62.5×22.0%2.0%1%
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.$20B24.7×8.7×61.0%2.8%11%
TXTTextron Inc.$13B14.5×9.2×16.5%6.1%12%
ULSUL Solutions Inc.$13B26.0×13.6×50.2%16.0%38%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 19.0×FY25 34.1×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $322.18
52-week range$233 – $451
Analyst targets$388 – $470
At sector P/E (45×)$412

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.