Weyerhaeuser Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Weyerhaeuser is a cyclical recovery play at an attractive entry point: the stock has sold off to $20.01 with an RSI of 22.5 (extremely oversold) and trades below both its 50-day ($23.55) and 200-day ($24.25) moving averages, yet the fundamental picture is improving.
Q2 2026 EPS of $0.23 nearly doubled year-over-year from $0.12 in Q2 2025, with operating income rising to $223M from $178M, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last three reported quarters. The 2025 trough — gross margin of just 7.5% and FCF of $88M — appears to be behind it as quarterly results sequentially accelerate from the Q4 2025 trough of negative $15M operating income.
What could go wrong
- Housing cycle reversal. WY's earnings are leveraged to North American housing starts and lumber pricing; any deterioration in residential construction demand or lumber prices would undercut the recovery in operating income seen in Q1–Q2 2026.
- Margin compression persistence. Full-year 2025 gross margin of 7.5% and operating margin of 6.7% remain far below 2021 levels of 40.2% and 35.7%; if cost pressures (e.g., OSB, log costs) outpace pricing gains, margins may not normalize.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $5.57B at year-end 2025 from $5.11B in 2024, while FCF was only $88M, raising concerns about balance-sheet flexibility if the cycle deepens rather than recovers.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of $6.3M in shares including CEO Stockfish selling 48,338 shares at $24.53 in March 2026, suggesting limited confidence at higher prices.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · technicals · fundamentals · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on WY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.3% over twelve months, from $24.02 on 27 Oct 2025 to $19.39 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $27.08 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 28.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 19.3M, on 8 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All WY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.0B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $821.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $501.3M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $469.0M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $283.1M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $270.6M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $217.4M | 0.0% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 63 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WY
Orin answers questions about WY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 30.2×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.4×near usual | 30.2× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 2.03×below usual | 2.88× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3×near usual | 17.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.5×below usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $27.40 (from $25 to $30) — 41% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$27.40
$25 – $30 · +41% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (RYN 35.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYWeyerhaeuser Company | $14B | 29.4× | 16.3× | n/a | 6.8% | 5% |
| LANDGladstone Land Corporation | $381M | lost money | 16.8× | n/a | −7.3% | −1% |
| RYNRayonier Inc. | $7B | 35.3× | 19.3× | n/a | 11.5% | 3% |
- LAND: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- WY, LAND, RYN: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $12 a share — 39% below the $19.25 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $12 | 39% below $19.25 |
| Levered | $7 | 61% below $19.25 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.