Weyerhaeuser Company WY
Weyerhaeuser's Q2 2026 results—$0.23 diluted EPS on $1.9B in net sales—mark the first credible earnings beat of the downturn, driven by stronger lumber prices and volumes, but the stock has already rallied 13.1% in a month and trades at 36.5x trailing earnings, a 33.6% premium to the REIT peer median of 27.3x. The 2025 full-year picture remains deeply depressed: revenue of $6.9B, gross margin of just 7.5%, and FCF of only $88M versus $2.57B in 2021, while total debt rose to $5.57B.
With OSB cost pressure clouding the outlook, housing-market weakness persisting, and the technical picture below both the 50-day ($24.34) and 200-day ($24.19) moving averages, the cyclical recovery is real but unconfirmed; holding until Q3 2026 results validate sustained margin and earnings improvement.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium on depressed earnings. At 36.5x trailing P/E—33.6% above the peer median of 27.3x—the stock prices in a recovery that has not yet been sustained across a full quarter cycle.
- OSB cost pressure. Q2 2026 beat was driven by lumber and engineered wood, but higher OSB costs are clouding the outlook and could offset wood-products gains in H2 2026.
- Housing-market weakness. Continued housing headwinds and inflationary pressures were cited in Q2 2026 commentary; a prolonged housing downturn would delay the volume recovery underpinning the earnings inflection.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt rose to $5.57B in 2025 from $5.11B in 2024, while FCF collapsed to $88M from $341M, limiting financial flexibility if the cycle trough extends.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat Q2 2026 earnings call highlights (2026-08-01) · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2021 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on WY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $821.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $501.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $469.0M | 0.1% of fund |
78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 63 Form 4 filings, net −$6.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WY
Orin answers questions about WY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.1× | 30.3× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4× | 17.1× | — |
| P/S | 2.21× | 2.88× | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.02σ from its own mean).
37.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$29
$28 – $30 · +38% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYWeyerhaeuser Company | $15B | 32.1× | 17.4× | 13.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
| ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc. | $18B | 42.5× | 18.6× | 69.4% | 21.6% | 8% |
| FRMIFermi Inc. Common Stock | $3B | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | -79% |
| INVHInvitation Homes Inc. | $16B | 24.7× | 14.0× | 44.4% | 23.1% | 7% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $15B | 25.0× | 14.7× | 54.8% | 27.7% | 6% |
| MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $14B | 34.4× | 15.4× | 47.3% | 18.2% | 7% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $18B | 18.3× | 15.7× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $13 | $24.43 · −47% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $8 | $24.43 · −66% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.