Wynn Resorts, Limited
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Wynn Resorts remains a hold as the stock has fallen sharply from $99.41 to $80.52 with an extremely oversold RSI of 25.13, but the fundamental picture is genuinely mixed.
FY2025 (as of the year ended 31 Dec 2025) saw gross margin compress from 43.5% to 32.7%, EPS decline to $3.14 from $4.35, and negative stockholders' equity of -$275M against $12.3B in total debt, while a new $900M senior notes offering at 6.9% due 2035 adds further leverage. However, Q2 2026 (ended 30 Jun) revenue grew 6.9% YoY to $1.86B with EPS of $1.32 and the stock trades below both its 50-day MA of $94.16 and 200-day MA of $104.05, with PS of 1.12x at a 41.6% discount to the peer median — suggesting some downside may be priced in. The PE of 18.35x at a 13.4% premium to peers, combined with deteriorating margins and rising debt, keeps the risk/reward unattractive for an upgrade despite the oversold technicals.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 32.7% from 43.5% in FY2024 while operating margin held at 16.2%, suggesting cost pressures or revenue mix shift that could further erode profitability.
- Balance sheet stress. Total debt of $12.3B against negative stockholders' equity of -$275M, now augmented by a new $900M notes offering at 6.9%, increases financial fragility if Macau or Las Vegas demand softens.
- Sustained technical breakdown. Stock at $80.52 trades well below both its 50-day MA of $94.16 and 200-day MA of $104.05 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.31, indicating bearish momentum that could persist.
- Macau regulatory or demand reversal. Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace represent core earnings; any slowdown in Chinese VIP or mass gaming, or adverse regulatory changes in Macau, would pressure the majority of revenue.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 28 Sep · fundamentals, year to 31 Dec 2025 · news, 10 Sep · results, quarter to 30 Jun. Orin's read on WYNN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 42.3% over twelve months, from $125.44 on 27 Oct 2025 to $72.42 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $133.09 on 2 Dec 2025; the last close is 45.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All WYNN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $954.7M | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $609.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $495.0M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $453.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $295.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $286.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $246.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $232.9M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $168.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $145.4M | 0.0% |
68 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 191 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.8B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 42 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WYNN
Orin answers questions about WYNN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 2 of the 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 18.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.6×above usual | 18.9× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 1.12×below usual | 1.75× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5× | — | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 9.7× to 61.9× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $125 (from $102 to $143) — 73% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$125
$102 – $143 · +73% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (LVS 14.7×, MGM 16.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 21.6× | 12.5× | 28.9% | 5.6% | n/m |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $23B | 14.7× | 8.0× | 49.9% | 12.0% | n/m |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | $7B | 16.8× | 17.3× | 44.2% | 2.4% | 17% |
- WYNN, LVS: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $297 a share — 310% above the $72.39 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $297 | 310% above $72.39 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.