Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN
Wynn Resorts remains a hold as FY2025 results (as of the year ended 2025-12-31) show deteriorating profitability — gross margin compressed from 43.5% to 32.7%, EPS fell for a third consecutive year to $3.14, and FCF halved to $692M as capex surged to $661M — even as Q2 2026 results beat estimates on Wynn Palace strength and Macau momentum. The stock trades at $99.41, below both its 50-day MA of $99.88 and 200-day MA of $108.49, with a negative MACD histogram of -0.29, while commanding a 22.7x trailing PE at a 24.7% premium to the peer median despite declining earnings.
Heavy 2026–2027 capex for Wynn Al Marjan and Wynn Palace, combined with $12.3B in debt against negative book equity of -$275M, keeps the risk/reward balanced but unattractive for an upgrade.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression accelerating. Gross margin collapsed from 43.5% in FY2024 to 32.7% in FY2025 on essentially flat revenue growth of 0.14%, suggesting cost structure or revenue mix deterioration that could deepen.
- Capex cycle straining free cash flow. Capex jumped to $661M in FY2025 from $423M in FY2024, halving FCF to $692M; the Wynn Al Marjan and Wynn Palace projects will likely keep capex elevated through 2026–2027.
- Leverage on negative equity. Total debt of $12.3B sits against negative stockholders' equity of -$275M, leaving the balance sheet fragile if Macau or Las Vegas cash flows disappoint.
- Insider distribution pressure. Over 24 months insiders net disposed 14.2M shares worth $1.89B; Tilman Fertitta actively wrote call options at $115–$120 in July–August 2026, signaling limited perceived upside near those levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-24. Orin's read on WYNN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WYNN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $954.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $495.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $453.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $295.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $286.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $246.0M | 0.0% of fund |
67 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 191 Form 4 filings, net −$1.9B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 42 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WYNN
Orin answers questions about WYNN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4× | — | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8× | 13.2× | — |
| P/S | 1.12× | 1.75× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.51σ from its own mean).
0.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$132
$120 – $143 · +64% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 18.4× | 9.8× | 38.6% | 6.1% | -175% |
| BALLBall Corporation | $15B | 16.1× | 10.2× | 16.4% | 6.6% | 17% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 11.1× | 6.9× | 57.8% | 18.4% | 41% |
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 16.6× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 11.9% | -15% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $267 | $105.78 · +152% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-40 | $105.78 · −138% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.