Xylem Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Xylem trades at a meaningful discount to peers on P/E (24.5x vs 27.9x median), EV/EBITDA (13.8x vs 17.2x), and P/S (2.6x vs 3.9x) as of the latest data, and the stock at $102.71 remains below both its 50-day ($110.39) and 200-day ($120.13) moving averages as of 9 Oct.
Margins are expanding—operating margin reached 13.5% in FY2025 with consistent EPS beats (Q2 2026 actual $1.46 vs $1.35 estimate)—but revenue growth has decelerated sharply, with Q2 2026 revenue up only 1.5% YoY versus 5.5% for full-year FY2025 and 33.4% in FY2023. The recently completed $500 million senior note offering across three trices for pump acquisition financing adds near-term debt headwind, while smart money interest has cooled (score 0.01 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.02 in Q3 2025). With Q3 2026 results due October 27, the near-term catalysts cut both ways.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 YoY revenue growth of 1.5% and Q1 2026 of 2.7% mark a sharp slowdown from the 33.4% growth seen in FY2023, suggesting the post-acquisition growth engine is fading.
- Elevated debt from recent note offering. Xylem completed a $500 million senior note offering in three series on September 29, 2026, adding to total debt of $2,063 million as of FY2025 for pump acquisition financing.
- Technical weakness. Price of $102.71 as of 9 Oct sits below both the 50-day ($110.39) and 200-day ($120.13) moving averages, indicating persistent downtrend despite RSI recovering to 40.8 from oversold levels.
- Cooling institutional interest. Smart money score declined to 0.01 as of Q2 2026 from 0.02 in Q3 2025, though fund count held at 62.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · technicals, 9 Oct · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on XYL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 37.8% over twelve months, from $149.40 on 27 Oct 2025 to $92.86 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $152.95 on 29 Oct 2025; the last close is 39.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.2M, on 27 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All XYL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $747.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $603.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $552.3M | 0.1% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $544.4M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $509.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $389.5M | 0.0% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about XYL
Orin answers questions about XYL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 40.7×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.5×below usual | 40.7× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.16×below usual | 3.61× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9×below usual | 23.4× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×below usual | 2.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $144 (from $112 to $165) — 55% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$144
$112 – $165 · +55% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYLXylem Inc. | $22B | 20.5× | 16.9× | 39.3% | 15.7% | 10% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 21.8× | 14.6× | 35.4% | 8.8% | 14% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $9B | 24.6× | 14.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 32.3× | 19.3× | 44.9% | 14.6% | 13% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| PNRPentair plc | $10B | 16.4× | 12.7× | 41.2% | 15.4% | 16% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $25B | 25.9× | 19.0× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 26.0× | 17.0× | 50.5% | 16.0% | 21% |
| ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $8B | 28.2× | 21.1× | 47.1% | 16.3% | 18% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $139 a share — 46% above the $95.51 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $139 | 46% above $95.51 |
| Levered | $109 | 14% above $95.51 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.