Yum! Brands, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Yum!
Brands remains a hold at $151.60 as accelerating top-line growth — Q1 2026 revenue up 15.2% YoY and Q2 2026 up 12.3% — and improving technicals (stock reclaiming the 50-day MA at $145.50, MACD histogram at 1.58) are offset by persistent margin compression (FY2025 operating margin of 30.8% vs 32.8% in FY2023) and a 19.5% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median of 15.07x. Insiders have been consistent net sellers with -$17.4M in dispositions over 24 months and zero acquisitions, while Jefferies recently cut earnings estimates citing weaker Taco Bell sales and the Pizza Hut exit, adding uncertainty ahead of the Q3 2026 print. The negative stockholders' equity of -$7.33B against $11.91B in total debt remains a structural overhang that limits financial flexibility.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin of 46.2% and operating margin of 30.8% are down from 49.4% and 32.8% respectively in FY2023, and further compression would erode the FCF generation that supports the dividend and buyback story.
- Taco Bell weakness and Pizza Hut exit. Jefferies cut earnings forecasts on October 14, 2026 citing weaker Taco Bell sales and the disposal of Pizza Hut, which could weigh on near-term segment performance and overall growth quality.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders executed 370 transactions with zero acquisitions and net dispositions of -$17.4M; the CEO and KFC Division CEO continued selling into October 2026.
- Negative equity and high leverage. Total debt of $11.91B against negative stockholders' equity of -$7.33B as of FY2025 limits balance-sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to any interest-rate or cash-flow shock.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on YUM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.6% over twelve months, from $142.98 on 27 Oct 2025 to $149.54 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $168.16 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 11.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.6M, on 4 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All YUM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $802.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $774.7M | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $740.5M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $703.0M | 0.0% |
103 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 370 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$17.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about YUM
Orin answers questions about YUM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.2×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.7×below usual | 26.2× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 4.68×below usual | 5.19× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8×below usual | 19.4× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $170 (from $155 to $185) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$170
$155 – $185 · +13% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DPZ 17.1×, MCD 22.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $41B | 18.7× | 17.8× | 45.8% | 25.4% | n/m |
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 17.1× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 12.0% | n/m |
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | $197B | 22.0× | 17.0× | 57.2% | 32.4% | n/m |
- YUM, DPZ, MCD: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $225 a share — 51% above the $148.40 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $225 | 51% above $148.40 |
| Levered | $167 | 12% above $148.40 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.