Orin
ZBHNYSE·Medical - Devices

Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. ZBH

Market cap $17.7BP/E 21.7× trailingGross margin 69.9%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$91.25
+1.56 (+1.74%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $79.12 – $106.88
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 23 Sep · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Zimmer Biomet remains a hold as solid top-line momentum and strong free cash flow are undermined by severe gross margin compression, rising leverage, and weak technicals. FY2025 revenue grew 7.2% to $8.23B with FCF of $1.47B, but gross margin collapsed from 71.5% to 61.6% and net income fell 22% to $705M, while total debt climbed to $7.52B.

Q2 2026 revenue of $2.18B grew only 4.8% YoY — a deceleration from the 9.3% pace in Q1 2026 — and the stock has broken below both its 50-day ($96.14) and 200-day ($91.44) moving averages to $90.88 with an RSI of 37.3, though it trades at a 14% PE discount to the peer median of 25.6x and has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters.

What could go wrong

  • Gross margin erosion. FY2025 gross margin of 61.6% is down roughly 10 percentage points from FY2024's 71.5%, compressing profitability despite revenue growth; if this trend persists, earnings will continue to decline.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $6.20B in FY2024 to $7.52B in FY2025, elevating interest burden and financial risk at a time when net income is already falling.
  • Insider selling. Recent open-market sales by Group President Thornal (5,691 shares at $92.95 on Sept 11) and another officer (3,000 shares at $98.35 on Sept 4) signal limited insider confidence near current levels.
  • Technical breakdown. Stock at $90.88 is below both the 50-day MA of $96.14 and 200-day MA of $91.44, with MACD histogram at -0.63 and RSI at 37.3, suggesting continued downward momentum.

What would change my mind

Gross margin stabilization. Gross margin stops contracting and shows sequential improvement in Q3 2026 results, indicating cost pressures are transitorybullish
Revenue re-acceleration. Q3 2026 revenue growth re-accelerates above 7% YoY, reversing the Q2 2026 deceleration to 4.8%bullish
Further margin compression. Q3 2026 gross margin declines further from FY2025's 61.6%, confirming structural cost pressure rather than a one-time eventbearish
Debt continues rising. Total debt increases again in Q3 2026 without a corresponding improvement in earnings, worsening leverage ratiosbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy 0.072 · derived_metrics FY2024 gross_margin 0.7146, FY2025 gross_margin 0.6162 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 net_income 705200000; derived_metrics net_income_growth_yoy -0.2197 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 total_debt 7519100000. Orin's read on ZBH; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
13G/A13 Aug—on file
13G12 Aug—on file
8-K5 AugZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.read
10-Q5 AugZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.read
8-K5 AugZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.read
8-K29 JunZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.read
8-K27 MayZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.read
13G/A15 May—on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Harris Associates L P$1.1B1.5% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
State Street$766.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$726.7M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$458.7M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$413.0M0.0% of fund

83 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 204 Form 4 filings, net −$7.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E21.7×25.2×26.4×
EV/EBITDA12.5×13.9×—
P/S2.04×3.43×—
P/B1.4×2.0×—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.81σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

0.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

42 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$103

$93 – $120 · +13% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 17 buy or overweight
  • 22 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 25.5× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.$17B21.7×12.5×69.9%9.5%6%
DGXQuest Diagnostics Incorporated$26B24.8×15.9×33.1%9.2%14%
DXCMDexCom, Inc.$33B33.8×21.4×62.5%20.1%36%
INCYIncyte Corporation$25B15.3×10.4×92.6%27.7%30%
LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.$25B25.4×14.9×27.8%7.0%12%
STESTERIS plc$20B25.5×12.1×44.4%13.3%11%
WATWaters Corporation$42B107.0×52.4×50.8%3.6%2%
WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.$26B47.5×31.8×36.8%17.0%19%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 25.8×FY25 25.3×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.5×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$478$89.59 · +433%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$438$89.59 · +389%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $91.25
52-week range$79 – $107
Analyst targets$93 – $120
Standard DCF$478 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.59
Levered DCF$438 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.59
At own 5y-median P/E (25×)$104
At 5y P/E range (24–115×)$98 – $477
At sector P/E (26×)$109

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.