Zebra Technologies Corporation ZBRA
Zebra's revenue recovery is genuine — FY2025 revenue reached $5,396M with 8.3% YoY growth, and Q2 2026 results beat expectations — but profitability has not kept pace, with FY2025 net income falling 20.6% to $419M and EPS declining 19.65% to $8.18 as gross margin compressed from 48.44% to 45.94%. The stock has rallied to $366.42, trading at 34.28x earnings versus a peer median of 18.45x (an 85.8% premium) with an RSI of 71.3, while insiders remain net sellers at -$19.7M over 24 months including recent August sales at $375–378.
The operational turnaround is real but already heavily discounted into the price, and with debt climbing to $2,816M and FCF margin contracting from 19.15% to 15.4%, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 34.28x earnings versus a peer median of 18.45x, any disappointment in growth trajectory could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with RSI already at 71.3.
- Margin deterioration. FY2025 gross margin fell to 45.94% from 48.44% and operating margin slipped to 14.83% from 14.90%, suggesting pricing pressure or cost inflation that could worsen.
- Insider selling acceleration. Insiders net sold $19.7M over 24 months with 75 dispositions versus 42 acquisitions, including recent sales at $375–378 in August 2026 near the stock's highs.
- Leverage risk. Total debt rose to $2,816M in FY2025 from $2,362M in FY2024 while equity was flat at ~$3,588M, increasing balance sheet sensitivity to any downturn.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2024 vs FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on ZBRA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ZBRA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $819.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $702.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $496.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $464.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $355.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.P | $328.7M | 0.8% of fund |
83 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings, net −$19.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ZBRA
Orin answers questions about ZBRA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.7× | 37.7× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.8× | 21.4× | — |
| P/S | 3.02× | 3.06× | — |
| P/B | 5.4× | 4.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.23σ from its own mean).
8.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$374
$310 – $435 · +2% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation | $18B | 34.7× | 17.8× | 48.9% | 9.2% | 15% |
| ENTGEntegris, Inc. | $23B | 75.5× | 30.5× | 45.5% | 9.2% | 8% |
| FFIVF5, Inc. | $26B | 35.9× | 25.3× | 82.2% | 22.0% | 20% |
| GENGen Digital Inc. | $16B | 15.1× | 10.1× | 78.0% | 20.7% | 42% |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | $73B | — | — | 41.7% | -230.1% | -300% |
| SNXTD Synnex Corp | $23B | 20.4× | 11.9× | 6.8% | 1.6% | 13% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $165 | $221.38 · −25% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $115 | $221.38 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.